A December to remember: OBJ’s letter bomb

By: Ik Muo

Once in a while, we actually, ‘see tomorrow’. In the first two weeks of November I examined the antics of some of our ‘ex-this, ex-that’ and how the present leaders respond to their interventions. Among other things, I had commented that ‘..The curse of the yesterday’s men- syndrome is that they are always better, their successors are always up to no good. Furthermore, and most unfortunately, most of yesterday’s men are hypocritical, economical with the truth and forget that the foundation for today-good or bad- was laid yesterday-when they were in charge!… Those in charge and in power today will always counter-attack: Even you? What did you achieve? You were a colossal failure! In the ensuing melee, the real issue is hidden or ignored…. All the men of yesterday are entitled to freedom of expression, association and aspirations. But they may not act in such ways as to devalue the institutions they had personified. Former heads of state,

 in particular should speak and act very decorously. They have official and unofficial channels to air their views. It is unbecoming for persons who had been CEOs of Nigeria Inc. to start making inflammatory statements, promoting parochial or destructive values or even desecrate the office that they once occupied so as to attain some petty or even grand political gains. (see Ik Muo, ‘Yesterday’s men, Today’s men and allied matters’; Business Day, 5 &12/11/13

Less than a month after this commentary, we received Obasanjo’s letter bomb;  a sort of Christmas gift, to President Jonathan and indeed, to the whole country. Efforts to separate the message from the messenger have been futile, if only because, as our elders say,  one needs to see a child’s welcoming visage before receiving a gift from him/her.  And viewed from my ‘hypothesis’ above, it is obvious that  Chief Obasanjo will not receive any accolades from me. He has views to air; he has several avenues to air such views[he had an international break-fast meeting with President Jonathan just as we were trying to unravel the satanic verses), the statements are inflammatory and desecrate the office he once occupied [and actually schemed to occupy in perpetuity]and they are obviously aimed at some political objectives. The motive may be to blackmail,  scare-away or intimidate the president, settle scores or gain political advantage, chase him out of

 Aso Rock, or whittle down his authority; incite Nigerians and the soldiers(?) against the government; or as Segun Adeniyi argued, exact a revenge from a recalcitrant and ungrateful benefactor. But whatever the motive, this letter which devalues both the writer and the receiver, and even the Nigerian state, amounts to playing politics- and to the gallery- with the unity and stability of Nigeria.

Another part of the unfolding scenario is the manifestation of another view of our elders; that whoever points a finger at another, will have at least three of his own fingers, pointing back at him; a sort of triple return to sender! Obasanjo had accused Jonathan of fueling corruption, mismanaging the security situation, seeking a second term, manipulating the umbrella party and so on. But everyone who has been around [and even those who are observing from outside] knows the score on these issues between Jonathan and Obasanjo. Both of them are of and in the PDP and Obasanjo manipulated the party to ensure the emergence of Yar’Adua and Jonathan, just as the system was manipulated for him to emerge against Ekwueme in 1998. A commentator had argued that if Jonathan had actually fought corruption seriously, Obasanjo should be where he was before 1998 and that somebody who has an office dedicated to corruption[like sharing the 3rd term monies, transmitting  the Ibori-EFCC bribe, and $20m agric equipment scandal]should not be talking about corruption. We also know who empowered those that Achebe calls ‘efulefu’ [riffraff] to take over Anambra State and burn down the patrimony of that state while police looked the other way

Of course, Obasanjo has always been a good letter-writer. He had once written that government policies should have milk of human kindness while at another time he bemoaned that the government was deficit in honour, deficit in truth and deficit in everything apart from saying one thing and doing another. But these letters are not truly ‘for the masses’. This is because, like other members of the political elites whom Dele Akinola referred to as power traffickers, rampaging and ubiquitous power merchants disguised as leaders, who want to score from the political off-side position [Guardian, 23/12/13,p16], his interest is not selfless. In this regard, John Campbell’s theory linking the crises of governance in Nigeria to the breakdown of elite consensus is germane.  Campbell wrote about powerful elite –oligarchs- who bypass the weak institutions and exercise power through patron-client networks as well as indulge in nonstop elite bargaining and

 maneuvering to access power and influence based on oil wealth. This network is composed of retired-and political- generals, ex heads of state, politicians and is characterized by seeming elite collegiality as well as cooperating and competing [‘coopetition’], and intense politicking. This façade of togetherness however cracks whenever change in government looms because of the winner-takes- all political culture which makes politics a matter of life and death in Nigeria. He specifically mentioned Obasanjo as a product and perpetrator of politics of patronage’ and declares that ubiquitous patronage and corrupt behavior fueled by oil money is the root cause of Nigeria’s political and economic crises.  He concludes that when the elites start to devour each other, to violate with impunity the rules that have governed their behavior, instability becomes inevitable. [Nigeria: Dancing on the brink, Ibadan: Bookcraft Co, 2010]. In effect, drawing from

 Campbell’s theory, what is happening is an intra-elite war over political power, influence and wealth at the expense of the citizens; it is not in the interest of the citizens! So, we are witnessing a war of big-men and those who act as if they own Nigeria: those who feel shortchanged, those who want to be noticed, those who want to have a larger share and all this is about sharing the booty

Meanwhile, a these issues raised by Chief Obasanjo are in the public domain-apart from the issue of snipers[ Governor Amaechi has declared that he is number one on the list]. President Jonathan should act in these issues because they are areas in which we, the people demand and deserve performance. But Obasanjo and other Exes should behave with decorum and these oligarchs should stop throwing us into confusion and panic whenever some people violate their written and unwritten codes and when they fight over our resources. May 2014 be a pleasant and letter-free year for us.

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FG’s dwindling revenue cast doubts on 2014 budget assumptions

December 31, 2013No Comment

Analysts have expressed pessimism over government’s ability to stick to next year’s budget, saying that in spite of the planned cut in the overall spending due to strain on oil earnings, the history of about 50 percent increased spending through a supplementary budget in 2010, the year before the 2011 elections, for instance, would repeat […]

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‘For over a decade, our focus remains building a disciplined generation’

December 31, 2013No Comment

As Nigeria continues to grapple with the challenges of falling standard of education and its attendant upsurge in lack of moral among the nation’s youths, an educationist has stressed the need to effectively tackle these challenges through the redirection of our approach to teaching and learning in our educational institutions. Oluwayemisi Oloriade, principal, Wellspring College, […]

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Missing oil revenue, crude theft threaten Nigerian economy

 BY DAYO OKETOLA

A manned locally-made boat containing crude oil near River Nun in Bayelsa
| credits: Reuters

Poor accountability of oil revenues and continued crude theft have constituted major threats to the Nigerian economy,DAYO OKETOLA reports

Nigeria’s economic survival is closely tied to its oil revenue and the demonstration of accountability and probity in the management of the oil proceeds.

But there are indications that not all oil revenues ever get to the government coffers and as such the issue of non-remittance or missing petrol dollars has become the cause of regular public outcry and government concern over the years.

Analysts are of the opinion the lion’s share of Nigeria’s oil earnings has found its way into private pockets over the past decades of oil exploration and production.

“Over $400bn was generated from the oil and gas sector in the country between 1999 and 2011. But will you say this fund was adequately used?” a board member, Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, Ms. Faith Nwadishi, asked. The initiative is a global body for the improvement of openness and accountability in the management of revenues from natural resources.

According to analysts, there is more than meet the eye in oil revenue remittances in Nigeria.

For the instance, the Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr. Lamido Sanusi, recently accused the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation of not remitting $49.8bn (about N8tn) to the Federation Account between 2012 and July, 2013. He said, in a letter to President Goodluck Jonathan dated September 25, 2013, that the amount represented 76 per cent of the value of crude oil lifting during the period.

Sanusi stated, “Our analysis of the value of crude oil export proceeds based on the documentation received from pre-shipment inspectors shows that between January 2012 and July 2013, the NNPC lifted 594,024,107 barrels of crude valued at $65,332,350,514.57.

“Out of this amount, the NNPC repatriated only $15,528,410,098.77, representing 24 per cent of the value. This means the NNPC has yet to account for, and repatriate to the Federation Account, an amount in excess of $49.804bn of the value of oil lifted in the same period.”

The CBN governor asked the government to investigate the NNPC, vis-à-vis the crude oil lifting and swap contracts.

But the General Manager, Media Relations Department, NNPC, Dr. Omar Ibrahim, in a swift response, explained that the revenues from crude oil lifting fell into categories such as equity crude, Petroleum Profit Tax, royalty, third party financing and the Nigerian Petroleum Development Company.

“The Petroleum Profit Tax is collected by the Federal Inland Revenue Service; royalty goes to the Department of Petroleum Resources; third party financing goes for the research and development programme and satellite fields development, while the NPDC goes to the NPDC for upstream development,” he said.

 Ibrahim said while the NNPC was paying proceeds from equity crude directly to the Federation Account with the CBN, the FIRS and the DPR were paying the PPT and royalty respectively into the same account. The sum total of the proceeds makes up the alleged unremitted revenues, according to him.

 “The 24 per cent of total crude oil revenue receipts, which the CBN governor is reported to have acknowledged that the NNPC remitted, represents the proceeds from the equity lifting which the NNPC is directly responsible for,” he added.

Sanusi, thereafter, told the Senate that the reconciliation of accounts carried out by the CBN, the Ministry of Petroleum Resources and the Ministry of Finance showed that what was unremitted to the Federation Account was only $12bn as against the initial $49.8bn.

The Minister of Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, however, faulted Sanusi at the Senate Committee on Finance’s public hearing, which was also attended by the Petroleum Resources Minister, Mrs. Deziani Alison-Madueke, saying that records in her ministry showed that it was $10.8bn that had not been fully reconciled.

Experts are worried by the seeming silence from the government concerning the alleged missing oil revenue. They, therefore, call for deeper probe into the oil earnings.

Nwadishi, the EITI board member, said the audit reports of the initiative had often revealed the shortcomings of the NNPC and other oil firms in the nation’s petroleum industry.

Similarly, Okonjo-Iweala had in July 2013 questioned the rationale behind the non-remittance of over $8bn into the Federation Account by the NNPC. This followed the report by NEITI in the 2009 to 2011 oil and gas physical and process audit report that the NNPC, Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency and two other companies had yet to remit N272.9bn into the Federation Account.

The NEITI Chairman, Mr. Ledum Mitee, said findings contained in the audit report indicated that N8.173bn, being over-recovery collected from some oil marketers, had yet to be remitted to the Federation Account by the NNPC and two other companies.

He said there was also a revenue loss by the Federal Government of over $1.7bn (N264.79bn) following the non-renewal of Memoranda of Understanding between the Joint Venture companies and the NNPC.

He said, “The report noted that the amount of N4.423bn, being over-recovery collected from some marketers, has yet to be remitted to the Federation Account, while the NNPC and two other companies have yet to refund N3.715bn, being over-recovery for the period under review.

“The audit report also revealed revenue loss by the Federal Government of over $1.7bn following the non-renewal of MoUs between the Joint Venture companies and the NNPC, which made the JVs to transact business with MoUs, which had expired since 2008.”

Mittee had put the total unremitted funds to N272.9bn after calculating the subsidy payments made through the NNPC between 2009 and 2011.

He said, “From the findings of the report, the subsidy payments made through the NNPC increased from N198bn in 2009 to N416bn in 2010, and nearly doubled in 2011 to N786bn.

 “During the same period, subsidy paid through the PPPRA increased from N208bn in 2009 to N278bn in 2010, and astronomically to N1.12tn in 2011.”

NEITI also exposed a disparity of N175.9bn between the subsidy claims paid from the Federation Account and the amount the PPPRA made.

Mittee said, “The Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation reported to NEITI auditors a total subsidy payment of N2.825tn, while the PPPRA disbursed N3tn to marketers during the same period.

“Some marketers disagreed with the amount ascribed to them by the PPPRA, especially in 2010, when a marketer claimed N2.56bn as fuel subsidy. The PPPRA recorded payment of N1.5bn, leaving an un-reconciled difference of N1.04bn.”

After a fierce media battle between NEITI and PPPRA over the N4.423bn debt in July, 2013, that arose from over-recovery collected from independent oil marketers between 2008 and 2009, NEITI absolved the PPPRA of responsibility after it said it had traced the money to the Petroleum Support Fund account domiciled with the CBN.

A joint statement, signed by the Executive Secretaries of NEITI and PPPRA, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed, and Mr. Reginald Stanley, respectively, had said, “The joint reconciliation meeting, after exhaustive and useful deliberations, resolved that the sum of N4.423bn in dispute has been reconciled and traced to the Petroleum Support Fund account domiciled with the Central Bank of Nigeria.”

 Whether unremitted or missing, experts noted that there had been low accountability in the oil revenues and called for a deeper probe.

They expressed worry about the persistent controversies over the non-remitted oil revenues that were often quickly resolved without any detailed explanation to the public.

The Chairman, House Committee on Public Affairs, Mr. Adeola Olamilekan, before the beginning of a recent probe of the NNPC by the House, had noted the issue of accounting for the crude oil sales by the NNPC had been on for the last seven years without a solution.

He said, “One of the areas of concern is the NNPC’s Joint Venture operations. There are several billions of dollars that are unaccounted for. Some JV partners will come before the committee and give you information that the NNPC cannot contradict. Now, when you confront the NNPC with this information, they don’t address the issues at stake. “Reports from the Auditor-General’s Office have many cases against the NNPC. When this investigation is being conducted, I urge the ad-hoc committee to liaise with the Public Accounts Committee. We have information we can give to the committee to assist the investigation.”

Amid the confusion, the Financial Times of London advised President Goodluck Jonathan to order a forensic audit of the oil and gas earnings in the country to enhance transparency and avert unnecessary oil price shock.

The FT said, “Jonathan should order a forensic, external audit of the oil accounts to clear up the confusion. This could go two ways. It could expose the real extent of losses owing to gross mismanagement and knock a further dent in public confidence. However, it could also show that government is serious about plugging the holes, while adding urgency to the passage of legislation meant to restore the industry to health.”

The FT said pruning the unremitted revenue to $11bn was not enough; adding that the forensic audit would reveal the extent of oil revenue losses in the country.

It said, “As it turns out, the central bank’s calculations contained big omissions. After poring over the data, officials have whittled the figure for related shortfalls down to more like $11bn. There are big questions still left to answer, however.

“The first is how the state oil company justifies withholding the $11bn identified. This, in turn, is part of a bigger puzzle over falling oil revenues that drove the central bank governor to raise the alarm in the first place.”

It said, “Oil earnings this year are down by about a third in dollar terms compared with 2011, while the fall in exports is on average 10 per cent. Swap contracts, when crude oil allocated for domestic consumption is exchanged for refined product imports without money changing hands, may be hiding further substantial losses.

To fill the gaps in the budget this year, the finance ministry has had to draw down on the rainy day savings fund that is financed by the windfall earnings above the budgeted price of oil. This has left Nigeria unnecessarily vulnerable to shocks.”

Nwadishi, who is also Chairperson, National Stakeholders’ Working Group Civil Society Committee, called for a public probe of the accounts and records of the NNPC.

 “Again, one other thing that comes out of the audit of NEITI is that there are recommendations for remediation. But these things are never done. Now, everybody is talking about the letter of the CBN governor, but you will be surprised that after a while, everything will die down,” she said.

Truthfully, it did die down but experts are seeking more answers to the questions raised.

A lawyer, Mr. Liborous Oshoma, recalled that the Senate in November, 2013, had said that N500bn Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Programme was missing. The Senate accused the NNPC of not accounting for the N32 removed as subsidy on each litre of petrol sold from January 2012 to September 2013. But Okonjo-Iweala quickly said no N500bn SURE-P fund was missing and insisted the allegedly missing funds had been shared by the states and local governments in the country.

The Federal Government had recently inaugurated an Inter Ministerial Task Team, primarily charged with the responsibility of recovering $9.6bn, being the outstanding revenue due to the federation from the oil and gas sector according to findings of the various Nigeria NEITI audit reports. Previous efforts by NEITI and the FIRS had resulted in the recovery of $2bn.

The FT had said that ‘big questions’ were still left unanswered in the Sanusi/NNPC saga, but it added that part of the answer could be found in the oil theft and pipeline vandalism.

It has been established that the country is losing about 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day due to oil theft and pipeline vandalism and these amount to 63,600,000 litres or 1,927 trailer loads of products.

The menace, which has shown no sign of abating, is estimated by experts to cost the country about $7bn in revenue loss annually.

The NEITI said the country lost over $11bn to crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism between 2009 and 2011.

Similarly, the country lost N191bn ($1.23bn) to the menace in the first quarter of 2013 as crude theft continues to threaten the country’s revenue base.

The NNPC said the daily crude oil production during the period fluctuated between 2.1 million and 2.3 million barrels per day compared with the projected estimate of 2.48mbpd.

“Expectedly, this fall between actual production and forecast in first quarter 2013 has resulted in a drop in crude oil revenue of about $1.23bn (N191bn) that should have accrued to the Federation Account,” the Group Managing Director, NNPC, Mr. Andrew Yakubu, said.

The International Energy Agency also said Nigeria was losing about $7bn annually to oil theft.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that the year-on-year GDP contribution of the oil and gas industry in  the country dropped in the first quarter of 2013 from 15.80 per cent in Q1 2012 to 14.75 per cent in Q1 2013.The NBS  attributed this to oil theft and vandalism.

Though the government said it had been battling the menace, experts scored it low in the efforts made in curbing oil theft in 2013.

The Vice-President, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mr. Babatunde Ruwase, said the Federal Government and security agencies knew the people behind oil theft.

He carpeted the government for its inability to check oil theft, which had been on the increase.

He said only the rich and the powerful could engage in oil theft, arguing that the equipment such as barges, tankers as well as manpower used in stealing crude were not cheap.

According to Ruwase, the oil thieves in Nigeria are millionaires, who can be tracked by the government.

He said, “You need to be a millionaire to be able to steal oil. The barges and tankers oil thieves use are very expensive. The government and the security agencies know them. Not until we decide to turn a different leaf, nothing will change as far as oil theft is concerned. These thieves are not ghosts.”

Ruwase, who lamented the increasing rate of oil theft in the country, blamed those he called the ‘wrong people in governance’ for the prolonged problem.

He also blamed the people in government for encouraging leakages and allowing the wealth of the nation to be taken abroad and wondered why the government could not utilise aerial surveillance to monitor the regions prone to oil theft.

 Experts concluded that since the economy depended on oil, if the leakages were not blocked, the nation could be plunged into a deeper financial crisis.

Copyright PUNCH.All rights reserved. This material, and other digital content on this website, may not be reproduced, published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed in whole or in part without prior express written permission from PUNCH.

Contact: editor@punchng.com

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Between APC and PDP defectors

DECEMBER 31, 2013 BY AGENCY REPORTER 

 

The Conference of Nigerian Political Parties on Sunday urged the All Progressives Congress to stop further admission of people defecting from the Peoples Democratic Party to the opposition party. Comments: Josh Madu: I wonder how these All Progressives Congress leaders reason. They claim to be progressives, but went ahead and accommodated those they called corrupt… [Read More...]

Budget for Villa Zoo, foreign, local trips

DECEMBER 31, 2013 BY AGENCY REPORTER 

Outrage has followed the allocations for the Villa Zoo and  the amount budgeted for President Goodluck Jonathan and Vice-President Namadi Sambo’s local and foreign trips. The Presidency has budgeted N1.6bn for a new jet;  N34.5m for two animals  for the Villa Zoo; N2.4bn for  Jonathan and Sambo’s foreign and local trips; N362m for meals and… [Read More...]

Two FG ministries to spend N303m on typewriters, PR

 BY EVEREST AMAEFULE AND ADELANI ADEPEGBA 

Nigeria's Finance Minister, Okonjo Iweala
| credits: File copy

The ministries of   Information and Interior  are  to spend N303m on image laundering abroad and typewriters in 2014.

The sum is part of the  details of the 2014 budget proposals submitted to the National Assembly by the Minister of  Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

 The  Information ministry will  spend N300m on external publicity/media insertions in foreign print   and electronic media in selected cities.

 According the  budget, the money will also be spent on engagement with foreign news agencies, and production of specialised publicity materials for foreign  audience.

The  details also showed that the   Interior ministry  would  spend N3m on the purchase of typewriters during the year.

 Another curious aspect of the ministry’s  budget  is  its   plan to  spend N3m on Human Immunodeficiency Virus.  It also intends to spend N3m on the refurbishment and upgrade of its intercom extension and N5m on letter bomb detectors.

The budget’s details also indicate  that the development of  social media platforms and networking with other platforms will cost   the Information   ministry    N50m  in 2014.

 The production of calendars and dairies  by the ministry will gulp N201, 347,699 the same year.

 Nationwide media tour of Federal Government projects and hosting of town hall meetings by the Minister of Information  is billed to cost N241m.

 The Minister, Mr. Labaran Maku, had towards the end of 2012 initiated the Good Governance Tour which has so far taken selected media professionals, public servants and civil society groups to four  out of the six geopolitical zones in  the country.

 The tour ran into controversy when Edo State Governor, Mr. Adams Oshiomhole, and Lagos State Governor, Mr. Babatunde Fashola, distanced themselves from it.

 Oshiomhole, in particular, contended that he did not need the team to validate that he was working for the people of Edo State.

 It was not certain as of  press time if  the nationwide media tour mentioned  in the budget is another initiative of the ministry or a continuation of the Good Governance Tour.

 Another N130m will be spent on ministerial platforms and press briefings on national events while the development of a National Policy on Information and the hosting of the National Council on Information are to gulp N30m.

 For the production of various publications on government policies and programmes, the ministry plans to spend N65m in 2014 .Public enlightenment and mobilisation on Vision   2020 in collaboration with Ministries, Departments and Agencies and external bodies on the transformation agenda of the government will gulp another N55m.

 The ministry plans to spend N80m on human capital development, N10m on the promotion of Made-in-Nigeria products and N35m on ‘capacity building for budget monitoring of projects and financial monitoring in line with transformation agenda’.

 Other major expenditures of the ministry include N25m for the production of jingles on progress made on the transformation agenda, N51m for the purchase of digital machines, and N30m on public enlightenment and national security campaigns awareness.

 Various sums of money will also be spent by the ministry on the development of web portals and construction of Local Area Networks.

Curiously,  the sum of N214, 242,040  is contained in the budget for  the rehabilitation of police stations and barracks by the  Nigeria Immigration Service.

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Contact: editor@punchng.com

Controversial letter: Chukwumerije flays Obasanjo

President Jonathan and Chief Obasanjo

*Says 2nd term for Jonathan ‘ll strengthen Nigeria

BY EMMANUEL AZIKEN, POLITICAL EDITOR

Senator Uche  Chukwumerije, yesterday, dismissed former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s advice to President Goodluck Jonathan not to seek a second term as one laced with traps against the president.

Chukwumerije in a commentary on the letter by Obasanjo to President Jonathan, dated December 20, 2013, and obtained by Vanguard, yesterday, said: “We, on the wrong side of Nigeria’s political divide, must thank the powers-that-be for up-dating us on the mood of the establishment and the current thinking of Nigerian system.

General Obasanjo, our revered ex-president, is obviously a major pillar of the powers-that-be or the one-man-powers-that-be or so he sees himself. He has, since after his first stint in Aso Villa, consistently played the role of the Praetorian Guard, pontificating to every successor and awarding marks like a headmaster to each pupil-president.
Every regime, from Shagari through Buhari to Babangida and Abacha, has benefited (or suffered) from the corrective tongue-lashes of the Guard.

Two Key Principles
This time, in a tutorial to Jonathan, ostensibly on the short-comings of -his administration, OBJ expanded every prescription with elaborate postulations on the democratic prerequisites of System Nigeria.

At the base of the Do’s and Don’ts are two key principles. One is the process of selection of what OBJ calls Nigeria’s CEO, a process which he insists must be guided by “the best interests of Nigeria”.

The second is the system’s irreducible demand of a liberal all-inclusive temperament  from a CEO, the pre-requisite of a one-Nigeria and all-Nigerian outlook hospitable to all ethnic indigenes, tolerant of criticisms and open to the demands of transparency in resources management and economic development.

The main concern of this short comment is OBJ’s process of selection of Nigeria’s President. Before I dwell on this, may I briefly comment on his choice of a good leader, especially a good national leader of Nigeria in this phase of her development. It is difficult to fault the wisdom of OBJ’s precepts and the validity of the integrative strength of an accommodating and de-tribalized approach to the management of the federal union. The possession, indeed articulation, of honour, integrity, trust and democratic spirit must be the character signature of any leader who wants to successfully lead the multi-ethnic federation through this phase of transformation to a nation.

Although critics have a point that examples are better than precepts and that OBJ’s long sermon was illuminated more by examples from the sad consequences of his anti-democracy assaults during his rule than the alleged short-comings of President Jonathan’s Administration, the fact of consistency of OBJ’s obsession with the unity and stability of Nigeria cannot be faulted. This sermon is replete with familiar refrains:

He protect and defend our fledgling democracy”,  “with common identity as Nigerians, there is more that binds us than separates us …

“No one knows whose blood would be the last
to drop … in such a situation Nigeria may be adversely effected” … “do not mar (Nigeria’s) history …etc, etc.

History will always remember and appreciate Obasanjo for stoutly  standing – at least in theory – and for consistently shouting from the  rooftops for the birth of a prosperous strong Nigerian nation and the  dawn of Africa’s renaissance.

The Selection Principle
But practice is another matter. To this, I return promise of a fruitful road map to his (indeed our) ideal goals of unity and stability is encapsulated in OBJ’s principle of selection of Nigeria’s President.

Through its apocalyptic messiahship, OBJ’s tutorial seems to be teaching us as follows: North-South (regional) dichotomy should remain the mode of selection for election of national leadership. This in his view will foster Nigeria’s best interests.

The mode of final choice of a CEO? Hear OBJ: “It is now not a matter of the turn of any section or geographical area but the best interest of Nigeria and all Nigerians”.

We extract these two points from the generosity of OBl’s expansive apologia pro vita lecture.
When OBJ made a point of praising POP’s selection formula, as “the only party that enshrines federal character, zoning and rotation… and (through this) brought stability and substantial predictability to the polity and to the system …and when he cited this to reinforce a point which he made earlier that “you (President Jonathan) had accepted a one-term presidency to allow for ease of getting support across the board in the North”, OBJ’s delineation of North and South as units of rotation for Nigerian President comes into a bolder relief.

We must also assume that the second point – that is, the challenge of final choice of a leader from a selected region – reserves the pride of place for Guard Obasanjo. This is so because in this letter, the ex-President generously refreshed our memories with history of his key roles in the emergence of his successors as democratic choices, from
Shagari through Yar’ Adua to Jonathan.

In summary, OBJ’s view is that a major component of the recipe for the unity and stability of Nigeria is retention of North-South (regional) dichotomy in selection of the federation’s CEO and the continuation of
his key role as the eternally wise King Solomon. Against the background of his North-South dichotomy, the choice of the king-maker is clear …as he solemnly proclaims:

“I do not know who will be President of Nigeria after Dr. Goodluck Jonathan. That is in the hand of God. But with POP policy  and practice, I can reasonably guess from where, in term of section of the country. The successor to President Jonathan will come.

But will this mode of selection serve the purpose of lasting stability for Nigeria?

No doubt, the former regions will live in popular mind as one of many points of collective identification (just as religion, etc) and progressively wane as the arteries and veins of constitutional democracy in a big  plural community take root.

No doubt too, outstanding individuals like OBJ will leave impressive imprints in the twists and turns of contemporary history.

But we must purposefully nudge the movement of the society along the direction of lasting stability. This is the path of  institutionalization of rules and procedures. Ad hoc and ad hominem approaches must begin to give way. This is why the nation and OBJ must review the merits of North-South dichotomy and weigh its limitations.

The Merits of Six Administrative Zones
The formula of North-South (regional) dichotomy cannot serve in the long term the interests of Nigeria’s stability. The dichotomy is too general to guarantee access of feasible constituents of the federation to the post of CEO.
A formula that will guarantee OBJ’s assurance to all groups that “if Obasanjo could be there, Yar’ Adua could get there and Jonathan can get there, any Nigerian can” should delineate a less unwieldy territorial swathe than the former region.

The current six-zonal administrative structure offers a surer guarantee of access to all than the former regions.
The turbulent history of Nigeria suggests the six-zone format as a dialectical necessity in the current phase of our nation-building. It will bring all the sectors of the federation nearer to a level playing ground.

The reference to dialectical movement is to the history of the dynamics of power relationships among regions, ethnic blocs and under-girding hegemonies.

The direction of Nigeria’s political evolution since 1962 has been the inexorable pace of disintegration ofn hegemonic strongholds in favour of progressive democratization of the political space.

Seen from this view, a second tenure for Jonathan is a necessity. It strengthens the precedent of a six-zone structure and reinforces a new convention/formula that adopts this rotation format for the Presidency as the recipe of national stability.

South East Zone
A major ethnic group like Ndigbo (residing mainly in South East zone) have since independence been excluded from Nigeria’ selected presidency. The official name of the competition ruleis “democracy is a game of numbers”.
But the buzz code of the system is “exclusion of the Igbos for the meantime”.

Obasanjo has allegedly said as much a long time ago, warning that it was an insult to the system for Ndigbo to expect access to the presidency in less than 100 years from end ofthe civil war.

OBJ’s choice of use of regions as rotation units to warehouse manipulation of selection of presidential materials gives credence to this allegation.

We do not of course underrate the magnitude of the task in the new formula. An enabling legislation is required to make the six-zone structure the base of the Federal Union and to make the zone the unit of rotation of office of the President (preferably for a specified transitional period).

Alternatively, all political parties should be  persuaded to voluntarily include the zone-based format in their  constitutions. Ndigbo and all other deprived groups on the wrong side  of the political divide have also a herculean task of purging themselves  of sanctimonious self-righteousness and bracing themselves for hard  bargains and strategic negotiations with other power blocs.

For system Nigeria, a period of almost half a century of silent ostracization of a group in political wilderness should be enough of a part of the total reparation exacted from Ndigbo since the end of the civil war. This major ethnic nationality has never produced an elected  President of Nigeria.

Future
Still on the future of Nigeria (and specifically fate of Igbo ethnic nationality) in the dark shadows of new but predictable hazards of replay of ancient systemic uncertainties.

The lengthy loud ambiguities of our Delphic Oracle reek with offensive smells – innuendos of betrayals and lurking disasters, of cyclical visitations of ignored history, of clear blinks of danger signs from 1966 milepost.

I consider most unfortunate and alarmist this warning: “Let me put it that talks, loose and serious, abound about possible abuse and misuse  of the military and the legitimate security apparatus for unwholesome personal and  political interest to the detriment of the honour, dignity, oath and professionalism of these honourable and patriotic forces.

Let me urge the authorities not to embark on such destructive  path for an important element of our national  makeup. The roles of the military and the security agencies should be held sacrosanct in the best  interest of the nation. Again, let not history repeat itself here.

I believe that with what Nigeria has gone through in the past, the worst should have already happened. It must be your responsibility as the captain of the ship to prevent the ship from going aground or from a shipwreck”.
When such an alarm comes from a revered leader, it is an invitation to a shipwreck from familiar quarters.

Predictably, rehearsed but hollow threats of impeachment was a logical fall-out of the alarm. Timely counter threats of treasonable felony followed.

We must avert this disaster. For Ndigbo, System Nigeria can never  make us again the sacrificial lamb of its fractured history. Never again.

If to foster a sense of participation of all ethnic components in the  management of Nigeria is the prime purpose of rotation of the  presidency, the formal acceptance of the current six-zone structure, (the successor to the former regions), should be the most effective mode of implementation of the formula.

A second term for Jonathan is important to establish this necessity. This gives to the federal edifice the solid foundation.

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Nigeria: How Govt Can Revamp the Economy in 2014 - Experts

Leadership (Abuja)

Samson Echenim, Bukola Idowu, Olushola Bello, Chika Izuora

As the curtain draws on 2013, financial, economic and the real sector players have postulated measures the federal government should take to revamp the Nigerian economy in 2014. They particularly called on President Goodluck Jonathan to rejig his economic management team, reduce lending rate to a single digit and conclude the privatisation of the power sector.

In separate interactions with LEADERSHIP Sunday, the experts, who noted that the economy recorded modest improvements during the outgoing year, said the effects of single digit inflation attained in 2013 were yet to be felt by Nigerians.

They also want the government to pay attention to increasing activities in the real sector and expressed concern over government's multiple moves to check importation, which they fear could reduce public revenue.

To the director-general of the West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management, Prof. Akpan Ekpo, the economy did not fare well in 2013 because the country had continued to experience high lending rates which left the real sector in comatose and increased the level of unemployment.

He however admitted that the economy recorded marginal improvement during the year based on a declining inflation rate as well as the unbundling of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN). Prof. Ekpo asserted that the effect of the single digit inflation was yet to be seen on the economy and urged the government to focus on other factors that stimulate economic growth.

"A country can have high inflation rate and still grow its economy; what the government should focus on is the threshold. It should work on bringing down lending rates. In 2013, the real sector was in comatose and Nigeria cannot do well with high lending rates. The manufacturing sector contributed five per cent to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and that to me is unacceptable. We need the real sector to create jobs and bringing down lending rates is central to achieving this," he stated.

He said with the unbundling of the power sector taking full effect next year, "the economy could bounce back, but the government still needs to bring down lending rates to a single digit. Because I don't know who would borrow at 24 per cent to start up a factory; you have to make more than that in profit to be able to pay back."

Ekpo also stressed the need for the government to start planning beyond the oil sector by diversifying the economy, adding that the quality of the leadership structure also needs to change in 2014. While lauding President Jonathan's transformation agenda, he urged him to look at those helping him to ascertain how committed they are to growing the economy.

On the outlook of the economy in 2014, the deputy governor, Financial System Stability, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr Kingsley Chiedu Moghalu said: "Following the economic performance in 2013, the Nigerian economy is expected to grow strongly in 2014 which will be driven by high oil prices and robust domestic demand. In addition, the several reforms initiated and pursued by government and her agencies in 2013 are expected to impact the economy positively in 2014."

Moghalu pointed out that financial sector reform through financial inclusion, would enhance economic growth and job creation through access to financial products and services by a large segment of the informal sector of the economy.

He added that the IMF has projected for real sector output growth of 7.4 per cent and the forecast for inflation shows that the rate will remain within the single digit band throughout 2014, despite the pre-election spending that might threaten price stability.

Moghalu said that the full effects of federal government and CBN interventions in the real sector such as Power and Airlines Intervention Fund, the Nigeria Incentive based Risk Sharing System for Agricultural Lending (NIRSAL), the Entrepreneurship Development Centres (EDCs) and other complementary projects of the government will improve the growth prospects in 2014.

"The conclusion of the privatisation of the power sector is expected to have positive impact on output growth and employment generation as activities in the formal and informal sector are expected to pick up", he added.

To Standard Chartered head of Africa Research and commentator on African markets Razia Khan, revenue shortfalls due to oil theft would likely persist in 2014 thereby creating a potential squeeze on Federal Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) allocations (the statutory sharing of oil earnings) and on state budgets. "With domestic politics dominating in 2014, Nigeria is unlikely to make much progress on tackling oil theft. The passage of the long-awaited Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), an ambitious plan to reform the upstream and downstream oil sectors, is also uncertain," she said.

She agreed that the power sector reforms would be a key influence on the economic (and possibly the political) outlook of Nigeria, saying the GDP in the first half of 2013 was negatively affected by supply disruptions from the West African Gas Pipeline, driving power generation to new lows. Power supply may improve meaningfully only in the medium term. Agric-sector reforms and the focus on the agriculture value chain should have a positive near-term effect: higher frequency CPI data indicates falling food-price inflation; rising agricultural output should eventually be reflected in GDP growth. Nigeria's GDP statistics are still due to be rebased, and a c.30-40% increase in the estimated size of the economy is likely. While this will make some metrics, such as debt-to-GDP, look more favourable, it is likely to reveal an even weaker ratio of non-oil revenue collection to GDP," she stated in an email.

Khan said since the 2014 budget was not presented in November 2013, the typical timeframe because of disagreement on the benchmark oil price, the contentious political backdrop raises the risk that no budget would be passed by end March 2014.

She further said that the still-ambitious oil output assumption (2.39mmbd versus 2.53mmbd in 2013) is likely to require further augmentation of budget revenue using Excess Crude Account (ECA) proceeds. With ECA savings thought to have declined to close to $3.3billion, "this raises upside risks to borrowing projections. Given revenue constraints, the capital expenditure budget will be cut according to the Medium Term Expenditure Framework, with the share of recurrent expenditure set to increase to 74 per cent. While the framework foresees a reduction in spending to N4.5 trillion in 2014 from N5trillion in 2013, the rise of a stronger political opposition is likely to result in pressure for increased spending," she asserted.

The acting director-general of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Mr. Rasheed Adegbenro, said in 2013 the real sector showed evidence of remarkable performance despite the harsh business environment. He noted that production output improved by N353 billion and attributed it to stability in the macro-economic indices and incentives by the government.

He predicted a better performance of the sector in 2014 arising from the power sector privatisation and urged the government to accelerate efforts to deliver its target of 10,000 megawatts of electricity by the end of the first half of 2014.

The MAN chief drew the government's attention to the ECOWAS Common Tariffs which takes off in January 2014 so that the country would not be overflown with foreign products. He also urged the government to broaden the non-oil export expansion scheme.

According to the executive secretary and chief executive officer of Nigeria Sippers' Council (NSC), Hassan Bello, one of the major trade policies that will determine the direction of port activities in 2014 is the new National Automotive Policy, which the federal government introduced to discourage importation of cars and buses and encourage local production of vehicles.

"The raising of import duties and levies on imported cars, as part of government's plan to encourage growth of the local automobile industry is expected to discourage importation of fully built units. This means that on the short run, that is, in the first and second quarter, or even through the whole year, very few cars and buses will be imported. This will mean that government would lose income in tariffs compared to this year," he said.