When I consider life, it is all a cheat. Yet fooled with hope, people favor this deceit (John Dryden)Don't accept your dog's admiration as conclusive evidence that you are wonderful (Ann Landers)
To be without guile is to be free of deceit, cunning, hypocrisy, and dishonesty in thought or action (Joseph B. Wirthlin)
False friends are like our shadow, keeping close to us while we walk in the sunshine, but leaving us the instant we cross into the shade (Christian N. Bovee)
I sincerely could never have imagined that in my life time, under constitutional rule, with a deep and broad mandate, a zoologist from Bayelsa, one of our youngest states, could rise to become Commander-in-Chief. There is no better indicator that, while much remains to be achieved, our beloved Nigeria is slowly but surely maturing politically. Almost unwittingly, we are strengthening our democratic practice. And we must acknowledge and be thankful of the fact that Jonathan has taken it upon himself to diligently promote one Nigeria not only in words but in action (Shehu Shagari)
pfront, let me acknowledge that I erroneously wrote that Buhari was the Commander-in-Chief when Chadian Forces invaded a Nigerian territory. Shagari was the then President and C-I-C, while Buhari was the General Officer Commanding (GOC) 3rd Division of the Nigerian Army. It was a slip. I regret the error.
Moving on: Nobody can win this presidential election without winning the south-west region! The Yoruba know what they want and how to get it; unlike Ndiigbo who are wavering and still can't articulate what they really want in this dispensation. The south-west, being the most politically astute region in Nigeria, in that it puts its interests always at the fore-front, above other considerations, has made it clear that anybody who wants their votes must be ready to implement the recommendations of the National Conference. This is where Buhari may be jinxed, because, no northerner can agree to implement those recommendations, because, that will reorganize Nigeria, and take away the undue advantages the north enjoys over the south. President Jonathan has agreed to implement those recommendations, and the south-west leaders are rooting for him now. Any of the presidential candidates, who loses south-west, can as well kiss the election good-bye.
To understand why no president of northern extraction would implement the national conference's recommendations, listen to how a former Nigerian House Reps member claimed that the oil in Bayelsa State belongs to the North. Mr. Farouk Adamu Aliyu from Jigawa State, who was a former minority leader in the Nigerian House of Representatives, speaking at a News Conference, claimed that the oil in Bayelsa State and the Niger Delta belongs to the North or specifically Jigawa State. He said also that they will do everything possible to keep that oil flowing to the point of shedding their blood. Watch the video yourself below. I am forced to concur now that the only thing holding Nigeria together, as a country, seems to be the oil and nothing else. The Farouk Adamu Aliyu's sentiment here have been re-echoed by other northerners, at one time or the other, and such sentimentality is what fuels the political feeding frenzy that makes elections in Nigeria a do or die affair.
This does not augur well for Nigeria. I don't know how many of us read what Ms. Annkio Briggs, a Niger Delta activist and spokesperson for the Ijaw Republican Assembly, said few days? What she said was in tandem with Aliyu's assertion, but, from a different direction. Ms. Briggs said that ruling the country is not the prerogative of Nigerians of northern extraction alone. Ms. Briggs made it clear that "President Goodluck Jonathan was the best president of the country since her independence in 1960". To her, "Jonathan had performed better than past leaders in the country". She then concluded "that the North should wait for another shot at governing the country".
In her words: "Northerners have governed this country for nearly 40 years. If you govern a place for nearly 40 years and you cannot allow or accept that other people should govern for eight or 16 years before it becomes your turn again, then you're selfish and greedy. The only thing that is developing Nigeria today is oil and gas, yet we are being told that a man that comes from this region is not good enough for this country. If he is not good enough for this country, then the oil and gas is not good enough for this country. I believe that it is not fair for the North to insist that they must take power back. Power is not their birth right. Must people from the North always govern Nigeria; is it their birthright?" That's the problem: Ms. Briggs and Farouk Aliyu echoed the same sentiment in different ways, and in accordance with their respective parochial interests, and that's not what Nigeria needs now. We want leaders who will have a broad range of interests of Nigeria at heart, not because of where they were born or because of what their place of origin gives to Nigeria, but, because of their leadership traits, qualities and skills.
My personal advice to Buhari is that he should never trust his handlers wholly, as he will never know if they may be allies of his political enemies. Sometimes, the threat is not those that oppose you, it's those that were supposed to be beside you. Loyalty is rare these days. Let's not forget that St. Augustine of Hippo (354-430) wrote that we should "Put no faith in salvation through the political order." My warning here stems from the fact that the APC was even contemplating dumping Buhari earlier, before the Party's primaries, for Speaker Tambuwal, a more sellable candidate, but, jettisoned the idea, because of entrenched interests behind Buhari's candidacy. Some selfish individuals supporting Buhari's candidacy now might be doing so hoping that if he eventually wins the election, that he might not outlive his first tenure, as that would offer them the opportunity to actualize their own selfish, parochial and ethnic interests.
Let's analyze what The Vanguard wrote, in November 2014, about why Tinubu wanted to dump Buhari for Tambuwal. According to The Paper: "Team Tinubu, the camp of the national leader of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, was compelled by some former Nigerian leaders and Northern Islamic leaders to drop its support for the 2015 presidential aspiration of Gen. Muhammadu Buhari. Reflective of the pressure which also came from some close associates of Asiwaju Tinubu, the political group has switched support towards the presidential aspiration of Speaker Aminu Tambuwal, who with his entry, immediately turned into a major contender for the ticket".
The APC in general and the Tinubu camp in particular then considered several other factors before thinking of switching support, such as the alleged overbearing influence of some close associates of Gen. Buhari, who they claimed were likely to fence out other political stakeholders in a possible Buhari presidency. The Paper noted that the influence of some present and past minders of Gen. Buhari was also another reason taken into consideration. A source told The Paper that "There is this perception about Buhari that he is surrounding himself with some people like Buba Galadima, Sule Hamman, reawakening complaints about the overbearing attitude of Buhari's now dissolved political machine, The Buhari Organisation, TBO, which had in the past been accused of selectively fencing out people".
Not only that , we were told that three former heads of state, two from the north and one from the south and a very influential retired army chief from the northeast, who has also held political appointments in the present dispensation, were among those cited by sources as having prevailed on the Tinubu camp to drop support for Buhari. Another factor that almost made the Tinubu camp to drop support for Buhari, was the reservations from some sections of the north notably, some Islamic leaders! The Paper quoted a member of the Tinubu camp of saying "It is not that we dumped Buhari, the Islamic clerics, the imams and the political leaders in the north, particularly three former heads of state, said that they don't want the man". More to that, the Tinubu associates also feared that the perceptions of religious extremism which the ruling party, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, had sought to tag on Buhari, could deny the party votes in the South were he to emerge as candidate.
The Tinubu camp also bemoaned this factor that has continued to hurt Buhari, and that is the fact that he can't lead, as he usually delegate authority. There were the concerns that Buhari could be detached from responsibility as usual, as reference was made to his past roles as head of state and chairman of the Petroleum (Special) Task Force, PTF, where his subordinates usurped authority in his name.
This was how The Paper put it then "When he was head of state, most of the power was delegated to Idiagbon, and when he was at PTF, it was another person that took charge, and if APC says they are looking for change, Tambuwal represents that change". The most important factor that was about influencing the Tinubu camp to dump Buhari for Tambuwal, during the primaries, was the prospect of Buhari turning on Tinubu and others, once he is invested with power. The Paper wrote that "There are also fears in Tinubu's camp that the man may destroy Asiwaju and may come back to hurt him, and some of Tinubu's loyalists warned him. The matter of General Buhari's age also came into consideration in the final consideration to drop support for the former head of state, as it was reasoned that 70 to 80% of voters fall between the age of 18 to 40+ and most of them don't know Buhari. Political associates were also disturbed that inputs made by party leaders into the general's speech at his declaration at the Eagle Square, in October 2014, were discarded, raising apprehension that the general in office could reject advice. Some were also understood to have raised the fact that the former head of state also did not have enough money for the race ahead. The factors inevitably helped to shift attention towards Tambuwal who was earlier aligning himself towards the Sokoto State governorship contest".
No wonder Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914) wrote that "In each human heart are a tiger, a pig, an ass and a nightingale. Diversity of character is due to their unequal activity." The point above is that Buhari handlers have no trust and faith in him, so how can Nigerians then trust him more? These points raised by APC against Buhari before the primaries, might work against him (Buhari) during the election proper. Buhari should not trust those hanging around him; he should learn from what happened to Nuhu Ribadu in 2011, as he lost the south-west region, that was supposed to be the stronghold of the then ACN. Former President Shehu Shagari reiterated this point, in his open letter to Buhari, thus" You have entered into unholy alliance with some known elements of disunity in the south but let me warn you. You will suffer hard in the hands of Tinubu and his political merchants who will use and dump you as they did to Nuhu in 2011".
This is very interesting: This was what the former deputy leader of the Senate, Senator Jonathan Zwingina, who was Director General of the hugely successful Hope "93 Campaign of Chief Moshood Abiola, told the Vanguard on November 19, 2013,when he was asked about the political configuration of Nigeria, and how that will affect the APC?, he answered "That The South-West alliance with the North as represented by the emergence of APC is based on convenience and this seems shaky, untestable and never lasting. As someone that is also fairly familiar with South-West politics, I not only was a student there, but I played politics as a student there but I was in the UPN and I was in the same campaign outfit with Chief Awolowo as far back as 1979, I was also the campaign manager to Chief Olu Falae and I was the campaign manager to Chief MKO Abiola and I delivered June 12, so I have a fair idea of the direction they take. The South-West is the most sober political block in Nigeria and they strike their alliances based on pure political calculations. When the time comes, they will calculate the direction of their votes based on national interest and based on the ticket that will give them peace and order and based on what they see that will promote their interest because right now, the South-West is not quite ready for the Presidency, both from the history of Nigeria and the history of their leaders. So, they are not going to do a do or die in the presidential election. If they find out that the Goodluck Presidency will promote the peace that they have had and does not threaten their governorship ambitions, they will be better advised to settle with it than any other presidency.
The Goodluck Presidency is not a vindictive presidency and has not taken advantage of any group and has not in any way created hatred among the communities".
To reinforce the above points: Some reputed Yoruba leaders have made it clear, albeit rightly, that Nigeria needs structural change and not personality change. Some of the distinguished South-West leaders, met on Feb. 19, 2015, and said that the only genuine change the nation craves for now is that of the constitution and not of personality at the helm of the country's affairs. Rising from a six-hour meeting in Akure, the Ondo State capital, they therefore resolved to work assiduously to ensure that the Confab recommendations get translated to concrete realities and back President Goodluck Jonathan for re-election.
The leaders, at the meeting, include Afenifere elder, Chief Ayo Adebanjo; Chairman of the Presidential Advisory Committee on National Conference, Senator Femi Okurounmu; Chairman, Unity Party of Nigeria, UPN, Dr Fredrick Fasehun; Dr Kunle Olajide; Coordinator of Odua Peoples Congress, OPC, Otunba Gani Adams; Afenifere Secretary, Yinka Odumakin; Prof. Dupe Olatubosun; Dr Olusegun Mimiko; Minister of state for Works, Prince Dayo Adeyeye among others.
Let's hear it directly from the horses' mouth:
The National Co-ordinator of the Odua Peoples Congress (OPC), Otunba Gani Adams, On Feb 23, also said that six million members of the group have resolved to vote for President Goodluck Jonathan at the March 28 presidential polls. He said OPC members took the decision at their National Co-ordinating Council meeting after taking time to assess President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Major Gen Muhammadu Buhari (retd) of the All Progressives Congress (APC). He made the disclosure at his Lagos residence while hosting Special Adviser to President Jonathan on Niger Delta Affairs, Hon Kingsley Kuku, who came to solicit his and OPC's support for Jonathan's re-election. Adams said OPC is rooting for Jonathan because of his human rights records in not arresting or detaining any activist since he came to power, convocation of national conference and promise to implement the 633 recommendations that will help to restructure the country, which he said is in the interest of the Yoruba and South-west. He said: ''OPC is a group of six million people. We sat down at our National Co-ordinating Council to decide on who to vote for between President Jonathan and Buhari and the support for Jonathan is unanimous. Now, we have come out to support Jonathan because of the National Conference. We have been clamouring for National Conference since 1992, even our leaders could not organise it. President Olusegun Obasanjo organised the National Political Reforms Conference with a lot of no-go areas. In the end there was a stalemate. Now a minority, Jonathan, did it. The only no-go area is the unity of the country. He gave us open cheque to decide the future of Nigeria."
Mr. Yinka Odumakin, who was with Buhari in 2011, but, now for Jonathan, also noted the importance of the National Conference and the reason Afenifere has endorsed President Goodluck Jonathan, because it was convinced he would implement the report of the confab. He said further that we have those who campaigned vigorously against that conference; who worked tirelessly against it; and who said nothing about it in their manifesto. And now, they are promising us change. Which change? Change from what to what? Who are the change agents? You take half of PDP and you sprinkle it. The only change that we need before we can move to any other policy change is to change the structure of Nigeria. The current structure of Nigeria cannot work except we change it.
People of low intellect insinuate things. They do not react based on convictions. The best thing is for one to pursue one's goals and history will vindicate who is right and who is wrong. The same people today are the ones who opposed the national conference; they are telling people now that we have passed the stage of restructuring Nigeria because they have restructured the country to their own interest. They have taken what they want from Nigeria because we know what they were worth in 1999 and today they are multibillionaires and trillionaires at the expense of our people. They are now pumping money all over the place for people to write nonsense; maligning people that they have been bought. We are bought by our convictions that Nigeria is not going to work as it is. It is only political merchants who want to short-change our people that are selling a lie to them and calling it change. Which change? You can see the billboards all over Lagos: One meal for pupils in school in one day. Is that a change for us in Yorubaland?
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To be continued!
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