Saturday, 22 September 2018

Letter from Africa: The link between earth tremors, God and Nigeria's elections


  • 20 September 2018
Abuja skyline at sunset
Image captionNigeria's capital. Abuja, was disturbed by earth tremors earlier this month
In our series of letters from Africa, Nigerian writer and novelist Adaobi Tricia Nwaubani considers why some earth tremors in Nigeria's capital caused such a stir.
Sometime in the early hours of 6 September, I was tucked in bed at home in Abuja when, suddenly, a slight trembling seemed to sway the building from side to side.
My first thought was that a jihadist bomb had struck.
I still remember the exact moment in August 2011 when a Boko Haram militant drove a vehicle through two security barriers, crashed into the reception area of the UN headquarters in Abuja, then detonated a bomb, which left more than 20 people dead and more than 60 wounded.
I was in a nearby building, the offices of the now defunct Next newspapers, which rattled and quaked while we all flung ourselves to the ground.
Security officers at the UN headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria - August 2011Image copyrightAFP
Image captionIn 2011, the vehicle carrying the bomb broke through two security barriers at the UN HQ in Abuja
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But, when I didn't hear the wailing sirens that always followed bombings in Abuja, I relaxed.
Perhaps the trembling was simply an after-effect of the quarrying that sometimes takes place near my Asokoro neighbourhood and in other parts of Abuja, a city known for its imposing rocks.

A day of trembling

Later that day, frantic phone calls from friends checking to make sure that I was fine made me realise that what had simply been a mild trembling in my area was more tremulous in certain parts of the city, such as the Gwarinpa District, the location of a housing estate that is believed to be the largest in West Africa, and the Mpape suburb where residents, mostly-low income families, panicked and fled their homes in terror.
The tremors in Mpape began on the afternoon of the previous day and continued till around midnight, according to newspaper reports.
Residents described goods toppling off the shelves in their shops and fearing that the ceilings in their homes would cave in.
Many assumed that their buildings were about to collapse.
Barely two weeks earlier, the collapse of an incomplete building in the Jabi area of Abuja made news headlines. The scene of the disaster, in a modern neighbourhood with some upmarket estates, attracted a visit from Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo.
Rescue workers at the scene of a collapsed mall in Abuja, Nigeria - August 2018Image copyrightAFP
Image captionProtests followed the collapse of a half-finished multi-storey building in August
At the time, the government and residents disagreed over the number of dead, and there were protests when government rescue efforts ended barely 24 hours after the incident, with a number of victims still believed to be buried in the rubble.
A few days after the earth tremors, which were felt in different parts of Abuja between 5 September and 8 September, the government released a statement to reassure residents that there was nothing to worry about.
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"We are carrying out adequate steps to determine what happened last week," said Idris Abass, head of the city's emergency management agency.
"Maybe it is a natural cause, but we want to assure the public that Nigeria is not on the zone of earthquakes."
Famous last words.
Back in June 2011, before the UN attack, a Boko Haram militant drove a car into the premises of the police headquarters in Abuja and exploded a bomb that took his life and that of a policeman.
Newspaper columns were taken up with analysing how the militant must have killed himself in error - probably a failed attempt to assassinate the police chief whose convoy the militant had tailed as it drove into the premises - as Nigeria was not a place known for suicide bombers.
A fire engine at the scene of a bomb at the police HQ in Abuja, NigeriaImage copyrightAFP
Image captionThe bombing of the police headquarters in 2011 is thought to be Nigeria's first suicide attack
Of course, we all know better now, what with the carnage the country has since witnessed over the past few years as Boko Haram attacks have intensified in northern Nigeria.
The police headquarters bombing is now regarded as Nigeria's first suicide bomb attack.

Quarrying activities banned

A day after Mr Abass' statement, another government agency published fresh information on the tremors.
The National Space and Research Development Agency (NASRDA) assured Abuja residents that there was no cause for alarm, although confirming that an earthquake had indeed occurred.
Agency head Seidu Mohammed said the magnitude was low and not worrying enough to warrant residents of the affected areas panicking and relocating elsewhere.
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Adaobi Tricia Nwaubani:
Adaobi Tricia NwaubaniImage copyrightADAOBI TRICIA NWAUBANI
"While government agencies have aired conflicting conjectures, many Nigerians, who tend to be deeply religious, have drawn their own conclusions"
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Measures would be put in place to monitor the earth's movements so as to predict and prepare for any forthcoming disasters, he added.
Not long afterwards, yet another government official widened speculation by announcing the suspension of mining and quarrying activities in Abuja.
But Abubakar Bawa, minister of state for mines and steel development. emphasised that he was not concluding that "the tremors experienced may have anything to do with excavations around affected areas... until investigations are completed".
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While government agencies have aired conflicting conjectures, many Nigerians, who tend to be deeply religious, have drawn their own conclusions.
Some believe it is a sign that God is angry with our country about something.
Some believe that it is a warning to President Muhammadu Buhari; perhaps against his style of leadership or his intention to run for re-election in 2019 despite his lacklustre performance over the past three-and-a-half years.
Yet others believe that the earth tremors are simply a call to more fervent prayer for our nation, lest earthquakes soon join an already long list of headline-stealing tribulations that includes: Farmer-herdsmen clashes, the Boko Haram insurgency, ethnic agitations and the battered economy.
One can hardly imagine how Nigeria might handle earthquakes when the government is still battling to cope with these other disasters that have left millions displaced and in dire need.
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Monday, 13 August 2018

Letter from Africa: Heroes and villains of Nigeria's parliament siege


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  • 13 August 2018
Masked men outside parliament in NigeriaImage copyrightREUTERS
In our series of letters from Africa, Nigerian writer and novelist Adaobi Tricia Nwaubani says scenes resembling a coup in her country have left many scratching their heads.
Nigerians still can't say for sure why armed, masked men held our country's parliament under siege last week. But the alarming incident had a most joyous ending.
They blocked all entrances to the building, denying lawmakers, civil servants and journalists access.
It turned out they were operatives of the state's spy agency, the Department of State Security (DSS), headed by Lawal Daura.
The other man at the centre of the drama is Senate President Bukola Saraki, who recently defected from the ruling APC party to the main opposition PDP.
Image captionThe anger boiled over as people challenged the armed men about what they were doing
He had called a parliamentary meeting of national assembly leaders - and it was this group that the armed men were blocking.
One theory is that it was a strong-arm tactic to make Mr Saraki resign so that the APC can appoint a ruling party senate president in his place.
The other theory is that it was all staged to make it appear as if it was officially sanctioned to make the government look bad.

'Invitation to anarchy'

Neither theory stands up to logical scrutiny, but you should never let anything surprise when it comes to the antics of Nigerian politics.
In April, a disgruntled MP allegedly organised for intruders to storm the Senate and steal its mace.
Media captionMoment intruders steal ceremonial mace from Nigeria's Senate
Decisions in the upper chamber cannot be approved without the mace - a large ornamental staff that represents the legislature's authority.
But when news spread of the events last week, including videos of angry lawmakers in confrontation with the armed state operatives, even Nigerians expressed their condemnation.
President Muhammadu Buhari was away in the UK on vacation, leaving his deputy Yemi Osinbajo in charge.

Adaobi Tricia Nwaubani
Adaobi Tricia Nwaubani:
"Nothing about Yemi Osinbajo excites the usual comedy that Nigerians have come to expect from our leaders"
"Nigeria is a democracy not a military dictatorship," said Atiku Abubakar, a former vice-president and PDP presidential hopeful.
"The acting president, being himself a professor of law, ought to know that setting such a precedent is an invitation to anarchy."
And indeed it was Mr Osinbajo who became the hero of the day.
Not only is Mr Osinbajo a professor of law and a former commissioner for justice, he is arguably one of the most distinguished leaders to have graced the Nigerian seat of power in the past few decades.
Yemi Osinbajo
Image captionVice-President Yemi Osinbajo has emerged as one of the heroes of the siege
For starters, nothing about him excites the usual comedy that Nigerians have come to expect from our leaders.
His educational qualifications are without suspicion. His foot does not get jammed in his mouth each time he speaks. He has no known girlfriends flaunting flashy cars and shady contracts around the capital city, Abuja. He has no known cadavers stinking in his cupboard.
Mr Osinbajo has even been heard to apologise after arriving late at events. The typical Nigerian public office holder's self-importance can usually be measured by how long they can keep people waiting.
And the vice-president did not disappoint. While the siege was ongoing, he released a statement denouncing it as "condemnable and completely unacceptable".
Then he announced the immediate dismissal of Mr Daura - and the masked men were recalled to their lair.

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Again, Nigerians can't say for sure if Mr Daura was simply a scapegoat for a failed coup, or if he was indeed acting without presidential authority, motivated by his loyalty to Mr Buhari, his kinsman from the village of Daura in Katsina state, north-western Nigeria.
But, I promised you a happy ending, didn't I?

Midnight arrests

Many Nigerians feel that if it took the siege on parliament to be finally rid of the spy chief - then hurray.
In 2015, the sexagenarian was exhumed from retirement and appointed to head the DSS.
In the past three years of Mr Daura's leadership, the agency has been characterised by midnight arrests on those suspected of corruption, disdain for court orders, detention of a journalist without trial, and the harassing of lawmakers at a federal and state level.
Many Nigerians feared that as he came from Mr Buhari's hometown it had made him untouchable.
Image captionMr Osinbajo described the siege as "condemnable and completely unacceptable"
We had resigned ourselves to the ongoing nightmare.
But, as the saying goes: he whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad.
The madness that Mr Daura seemed to display by launching the siege has now led to his ignominious fall.
On the acting president's orders, Mr Daura was arrested and although released a few days later, his passport was seized.
Mr Osinbajo described his antics as "a gross violation of constitutional order, rule of law and all accepted notions of law and order". Mr Daura has yet to put his side of events.
But many Nigerians are now hoping that he will have that opportunity in court. What an even more joyous ending that would be - and one that follows the rule of law.

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Thursday, 2 August 2018

Obasanjo, Tinubu and the sour taste of an old romance





It is an irony that the two leading Yoruba personages in pubic space today may not share similar view of the future. Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, the energetic retired President of the Republic has stated his objective clearly: he does not want President Muhammadu Buhari to run for a second term because of what he considers Buhari’s disastrous record in managing the nation’s security. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu was the political genius who created the All Progressives Congress, APC, from an amalgam of disparate groups. He is an ally of Buhari whom he helped installed in power in 2015. Whether Buhari remains his ally is another matter.
Obasanjo was brought up to distrust politicians. In contrast, Tinubu grew into politics under the wings of the formidable Alhaja Abibatu Mogaji, the legendary amazon who as the leader of Lagos market men and women, was a deciding factor in Lagos politics for several decades. The 2019 elections would be a litmus test for both Tinubu and Obasanjo and both have shown capacity for national relevance. Both of them fought the last general elections in 2015 as strong allies of President Muhammadu Buhari. 2019 may be decidedly different.
As a young subaltern of the new Nigerian Army, Obasanjo was drafted into the Congo, where the politicians, Patrice Lumumba, the Prime Minister and Josef Kasavubu, the President, disagreed on how to govern the newly independent country. One day Obasanjo was captured by rebel soldiers. He was miraculously escaped execution. He returned to Nigeria later only to meet a country messed up by politicians until the soldiers, led by his bosom friend, Major Chukwuma Kaduna Nzeogwu, ended the life of the First Republic during the first coup on January 15, 1966. Nzeogwu had opened the Pandora box.
Worse days were to come. The soldiers could not manage what they inherited and like the Congo, Nigeria was plunged into a civil war and Obasanjo again found himself on the war front as the General Officer Commanding the Third Marine Commando Division. One day he drove into an ambush, was wounded and carried the scar till today. When his friend and boss, General Murtala Muhammed was killed during the abortive coup of February 13, 1976, Obasanjo became Nigerian ruler “against my personal wish and desire.”
He did the uncommon when he handed over power to elected President Shehu Aliyu Shagari on October 1, 1979, leading the military back into the barracks. One day he attended the Council of States meeting in Doddan Barracks which the politicians have renamed State House Ribadu Road Ikoyi. Shagari tabled the government’s effort to tackle wide spread hunger in the land by setting up a Presidential Task Force for Rice Importation. Obasanjo flared up, calling Shagari a shameless President. “You are not ashamed to eat rice grown by farmers of other countries!” he growled at the President. “You cannot set up a Presidential Task Force to grow rice!”
It was to be the beginning of Obasanjo clash with his successors.The new path was to ultimately lead him into prison and ultimately back to power when he returned as an elected President 20 years after he retired as military ruler. After eight tumultuous years, he installed his successor, President Umar Musa Yar’Adua who died in office and was succeeded by his Vice-President, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan. Obasanjo clashed with Jonathan, and helped to install his former officer, Buhari, in his stead. Now he has taken on Buhari and that is pitting him against Tinubu who in their brief romance, once described Obasanjo as the national “navigator” of the impossible alliance that Tinubu cobbled together to bring Buhari to power.
Though Tinubu has been restrained in criticizing Obasanjo, there is no doubt that the romance is over. Tinubu’s odyssey has taken a different path from that of Obasanjo. He came into national prominence when became one of the leading lights of the Social Democratic Party, SDP, during the closing days of General Ibrahim Babangida ultimately futile transition programme. He was one of the youngest members elected into the Senate and when the June 12 crisis exploded on the national stage, he was one of the most trusted supporters of Chief Moshood Abiola. In the wake of the crisis, he fled into exile becoming one of the leaders and financiers of the external wing of the opposition National Democratic Coalition, NADECO.
The struggle against the dictator, General Sani Abacha, who had imprisoned Obasanjo and many other opposition figures, put him and Tinubu on the same side. By the dawn of the new republic in 1999, Obasanjo was President in Abuja and Tinubu governor in Lagos. They were to clash several times, including over Tinubu’s attempt to create new local government areas in Lagos. Obasanjo was of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, while Tinubu was the Alliance for Democracy, AD, governor of Lagos State which in alliance with the All Peoples Party, APP, had fielded Chief Olu Falae, the only opponent of Obasanjo at the 1999 presidential election. Both Tinubu and Obasanjo left power at the same time in 2007 but have remained in politics since then. The 2015 general elections was the first time both of them would be playing on the same team. They won. Now the brief flirtation seems to be over.
What is at stake may be more than the job of Buhari. Since Obasanjo left power, there have been a stirring in the land which has now grown into a loud chorus that Nigeria needs to restructure its polity. In the beginning, many of the leading lights of the APC, especially the old ACN faction headed by Tinubu, had claimed ownership of this movement for restructuring. Its members spearheaded the publication of The Yoruba Agenda which called for the grouping of the Federation into more viable regions with the states of Oyo, Osun, Ekiti, Ondo, Ogun and Lagos constituting one region. When the Jonathan Constitutional Conference recommended the same panacea, it was felt that the politicians were reaching something close to a consensus on the matter. However, since Buhari got to power, there seem to be distaste for new constitutional arrangement among members of the Buhari court.
Neither Obasanjo nor Tinubu has made categorical statement on the kind of future constitutional arrangement they envisioned for Nigeria. However, Obasanjo has been flirting more with Buhari’s opponents who are now claiming ownership of the call for constitutional reforms and restructuring. In the emerging coalition are also disparate forces and seasoned carpetbaggers who seem to be interested more in the juicy fruits of power. The drama is taking new dimensions including the violent participation of shadowy Fulani herdsmen and the terrorist group, Boko Haram. Despite Buhari’s claim to spending billion of naira on security, the army of evil remains active in the Nigerian commonwealth. In the league are the likes of kidnappers, cultists, robbers, drug dealers and peddlers and they appeared emboldened because past perpetrators or seldom caught and rarely punished.
In the struggle to keep Buhari in the saddle or topple him through the ballot box the Buhari coalition would have more than Obasanjo and his team to deal with. The failed romance of Obasanjo and Tinubu is an indication of the slippery terrain of Nigerian politics. More so, it advertises the inability of our President to keep his friends and presides over a far-flung political empire. This is a fundamental flaw on the part of Buhari. A President who cannot keep his friends may hardly be expected to have the wherewithal to win over his foes.
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