AVAILABLE data showed that total federally-collected revenue during the first quarter of 2013 stood at N2,425.30 billion, representing a decline of 2.4 and 17.9 per cent below the receipts in the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2012, respectively. However, relative to the proportionate budget estimate, federally-collected revenue rose by 3.1 per cent.
At N1,849.51 billion, gross oil receipts, which constituted 76.3 per cent of the total, exceeded the proportionate budget estimate and the receipts in the preceding quarter by 15.5 and 1.4 per cent, respectively, but declined by 22.2 per cent below the receipts in the corresponding period of 2012. The rise in oil receipts relative to the preceding period was attributed to the increase in the receipts from crude oil/gas exports, domestic crude oil/gas sales and “other” oil revenue during the period.
Non-oil receipts, at N575.80 billion (23.7 per cent of the total), were below the proportionate budget estimate and the receipts in the preceding quarter by 23.3 and 12.8 per cent, respectively. The decline in non-oil revenue relative to the preceding quarter, reflected, largely, the fall in Corporate Taxes, Federal Government Independent Revenue, Education Tax and Customs and Excise duties during the review period. As a percentage of estimated nominal GDP for the first quarter 2013, oil and non-oil revenue were 19.1 and 5.9 per cent, respectively.
Of the gross federally-collected revenue during the review quarter, the sum of N1,366.70 billion (after accounting for all deductions and transfers), was transferred to the Federation Account for distribution among the three tiers of government and the 13.0 per cent Derivation Fund. The Federal Government received N643.79 billion, while the states and local governments received N326.54 billion and N251.75 billion, respectively. The balance of N144.62 billion went to the 13.0 per cent Derivation Fund for distribution by the oil-producing states.
Also, the Federal Government received N26.72 billion from the VAT Pool Account, while the state and local governments received N89.06 billion and N62.34 billion, respectively. In addition, the sum of N333.81 billion was drawn from the Excess Crude Account (ECA) to bridge the short-fall in revenue for the period and was shared as follows: Federal (N152.99 billion), state (N77.60 billion), local governments (N59.83 billion) and oil producing states (N43.40 billion).
An additional N106.65 billion was also distributed among the tiers of government and oil producing states from the Subsidy Re-investment and Empowerment Programme, (SURE-P) Fund. Thus, the total allocation to the three tiers of government in the first quarter of 2013 amounted to N2,008.12 billion. This exceeded the 2013 quarterly budget estimate by 9.3 per cent.
The Federal Government
At N908.14 billion, the Federal Government retained revenue for the first quarter of 2013 was lower than both the proportionate budget estimate and receipts in the preceding quarter by 11.0 and 1.6 per cent, respectively. Relative to the receipts in the corresponding period of 2012, Federal Government retained revenue also declined by 10.6 per cent. Of this amount, the Federal Government share from the Federation Account, VAT Pool Account and FGN Independent Revenue were N643.87 billion, N26.34 billion and N35.42 billion, respectively, while “Others” accounted for the balance of N202.51 billion
Total estimated expenditure for the first quarter stood at N1,192.92 billion and was lower than the proportionate budget estimate by 8.0 per cent, but higher than the levels in the preceding quarter and corresponding period of 2012 by 5.5 and 8.3 per cent, respectively. The development (relative to the quarterly budget estimate) was attributed to the delay in capital releases during the review period. A breakdown of the total expenditure showed that the recurrent component accounted for 65.5 per cent, capital component 27.0 per cent, while statutory transfers accounted for the balance of 7.5 per cent (Fig. 10). Further breakdown of the recurrent expenditure showed that the non-debt component accounted for 77.4 per cent, while debt service payments accounted for the balance of 22.6 per cent.
Thus, the fiscal operations of the Federal Government resulted in an estimated deficit of N284.78 billion or 2.9 per cent of the estimated nominal GDP for the quarter, compared with the 2013 benchmark and the preceding quarter deficits of N276.11 billion and N207.32 billion, respectively. The deficit was financed mainly from domestic sources.
Statutory Allocations to State Governments
Total allocation to state governments (including the Federation Account, 13.0 per cent Derivation Fund and share of VAT receipts) stood at N734.07 billion in the first quarter 2013. This represented a decline of 1.0 per cent below the level in the preceding quarter, but an increase of 4.0 per cent above the level in the corresponding quarter of 2012.
Further breakdown showed that, at N645.01 billion, receipts from Federation Account constituted 87.9 per cent of the total, indicating a decline of 0.2 and 0.5 percentage point relative to the levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2012, respectively. At N89.06 billion, receipts from VAT constituted 12.1 per cent of the total, indicating an increase of 0.2 and 0.5 percentage point relative to the levels in the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2012, respectively. On a monthly basis, the sum of N205.22 billion, N207.49 billion and N321.36 billion was allocated as statutory allocations and VAT receipts to the 36 state governments in January, February and March 2013, respectively.
Statutory Allocations to Local Government Councils
Total receipts by the Local Governments from the Federation and VAT Pool Accounts during the first quarter of 2013, stood at N401.68 billion. This amount was below the levels in the preceding quarter and corresponding period of 2012 by 3.8 and 2.4 per cent, respectively. Of the total amount, allocation from the Federation Account was N339.34 billion (84.5 per cent), while VAT Pool Account accounted for the balance of N62.34 billion (15.5 per cent). On a monthly basis, the sum of N113.61 billion, N116.49 billion and N171.58 billion was allocated to the 774 local governments in January, February and March 2013, respectively.
Domestic Economic Conditions
Provisional data showed that aggregate output measured by the real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.6 per cent, compared with 6.9 per cent in the preceding quarter. The development was attributed, largely, to the decline in the contribution of the non-oil sector, during the review period. Crude oil production was estimated at 2.05 million barrels per day (mbd) or 184.5 million barrels for the quarter. The end-period inflation rate for the first quarter of 2013, on year-on-year basis, was 8.6 per cent, compared with 12.0 and 12.1 per cent in the preceding quarter and the corresponding quarter of 2012, respectively. The inflation rate on a 12-month moving average basis was 11.4 per cent, compared with 12.2 and 10.9 per cent in the preceding quarter and the corresponding period of 2012, respectively.
Aggregate Output
Aggregate output (estimate) in the first quarter measured by gross domestic product (GDP) at 1990 basic prices grew by 6.6 per cent, compared with 6.9 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter. The lower output growth rate in the review quarter was attributed to the decline in the contribution of the non-oil sector. Real non-oil GDP was estimated to have grown by 7.9 per cent and accounted for 85.2 per cent of the total GDP in the review quarter. Real oil GDP, comprising crude petroleum and natural gas was estimated to have declined by 13.3 per cent, compared with the decline of 0.2 per cent in the preceding quarter and accounted for 14.8 per cent of the total real GDP
A total of N1,892.9 million was guaranteed to 10,324 farmers under the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS) in the first quarter of 2013. This represented a decline of 41.6 per cent below the level in the preceding quarter, but an increase of 125.1 per cent above the level in the corresponding period of 2012.
A sub-sectoral analysis of the loans guaranteed indicated that the food crops sub-sector received the largest share of N1,105.2 million (53.6 per cent) for 7,734 beneficiaries, while the livestock sub-sector got N672.9 million (35.5 per cent) for 2,081 beneficiaries. Also, 275 beneficiaries in “others” sub- sector obtained N69.8 million (3.7 per cent), while N47.9 million (2.5 per cent) was guaranteed for 89 beneficiaries in the mixed crops sub-sector. Furthermore, 86 beneficiaries in the fisheries sub-sector received N46.2 million (2.4 per cent), while 59 beneficiaries in the cash crops sub-sector received N41.0 million (2.2 per cent). Further analysis showed that 34 states benefited from the scheme during the quarter, with the highest and lowest sums of N261.1 million (13.8 per cent) and N2.2 million (0.1 per cent) guaranteed to beneficiaries in Katsina and Plateau states, respectively.
At end-March 2013, the total amount released by the CBN under the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS) to the participating banks for disbursement stood at N199.2 billion (for two hundred and seventy one projects). The beneficiaries included thirty state governments
Industrial19a.5ctivities during the first quarter of 2013 indicated a decline relative to the level in the level in the preceding quarter. At 136.35 (1990=100), the estimated index of industrial production declined by 0.9 per cent below the level attained in the preceding quarter. It however, showed an increase of 0.7 per cent compared with the level attained in the corresponding period of 2012. The development reflected the decline in the contribution of all sub-sectors.
The estimated index of manufacturing production, at 106.35 (1990=100), declined marginally by 0.9 per cent below the level attained attained in the preceding quarter, but increased by 0.4 per cent over the level in the corresponding period of 2012. The manufacturing capacity ut5ilization
Also declined by 1.3 percentage points below the level in the preceding quarter to 57.39 per cent. The deve1opment was attributed to the decline in electricity supply.
Petroleum Sector
Nigeria’s crude oil oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids, was estimated at 2.05 million barrels per day (mbd) or 184.5 million barrels during the first quarter of 2013, compared with 2.00 mbd or (184.0 million barrels) in the preceding quarter. This represented an increase in production level of 0.05 mbd or 2.5 per cent. Consequently, crude oil export was estimated at 1.60 mbd or (144.0 million barrels) in the review period, representing an increase of 3.2 per cent over the 1.55 mbd or (139.5 million barrels) recorded in the preceding quarter. The development was attributed to repairs on damaged oil installations and improved security surveillance. Allocation of crude oil for domestic consumption was 0.45 mbd or 40.5 million barrels during the period under review.
At an estimated average of US$115.34 per barrel, the price of Nigeria?s reference crude, the Bonny Light (37o API), rose by 2.3 per cent, over the level in the preceding quarter. The average prices of other competing crudes, namely the U.K Brent at US$113.68 per barrel and the Forcados at US$116.89 per barrel also exhibited similar trend as the Bonny Light.
However, the West Texas Intermediate declined to US$91.07 per barrel during the review period. The average price of OPEC?s basket of eleven crude streams also rose by 2.0 per cent from the level in the preceding quarter to US$109.48 per barrel but declined by 6.7 per cent when compared with the level in the corresponding period of 2012. The development was attributed, largely, to improved industrial activities and consumers? increased demand for heating oil in Europe.
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