The Mathematics of Oil (Theft)

• Thomas teaches History at the Lagos State University (LASU), Ojo

Crude oil

By Dapo Thomas

Configured in the space of creation as a model of all that is tragic and ironic, the Nigerian state is undoubtedly fixated to a ‘scripted’ Fate.  Every evil, whether of minute amounts or cosmic scale, for as long as its nature is evil or even its incarnate, finds the space for expression in Nigeria-corruption, stiff-necked leaders and people, ‘wastes’ of space, wastefulness, illywhackers and grafters, ritual initiates, kidnappers, pedophiles, unlettered ‘fellow widows’ of groggy patience, madcap lawmakers and ‘jangy’ governors of strange mathematics (16 > 19) from the land of the ghouls, oil thieves and pipeline vandals and other nameless ones still on the queue of iniquities.

The official disclosure was recently made that Nigeria loses 400,000 bpd (barrels of oil per day) to oil thieves, small and big; the hungry vandals that rupture the pipelines and the brazen elite that nurture the pipelines with sophisticated tools. Talk of small rogues, big crooks!

The figure could be higher than the one given. Official figures are those captured by system documentation but the informal operators are never captured in the official recording. They have a way of being evasive and elusive. But let us play along with the 400,000 bpd released by the Federal Government as the loss we suffer daily to oil robbers.

Incensed and puzzled that such huge waste occurs daily and our leaders feign helplessness and indifference, my natural reaction was that this nation needs urgent diagnostic examination, at least, to determine the degree of our collective madness. My curiosity encouraged me to have reflective insights into other nations’ details of oil production and management and the conclusion was an emphatic absurdity: Nigeria is a wastrel.

The shocking discovery was that the 400,000 bpd that Nigeria loses to oil thieves are what about 16 nations, ones that we can somehow flatter with some greatness and pride, produce officially among themselves. The official figures released by International Energy Agency show what these countries produce daily and officially: Japan (132,700 bpd), Netherlands (57,190 bpd), Turkey (52,980 bpd), Cuba (48,340 bpd), South Korea (48,180 bpd), Austria (21,880 bpd), Singapore (10,910 bpd), Ghana (7081 bpd), Sweden (4833 bpd), Portugal (4721 bpd), Israel (3806 bpd), Switzerland (3488 bpd), Georgia (995 bpd), Ireland (431 bpd) and North Korea (118 bpd), Uruguay (997 bpd). When I did a mathematical calculation of these figures, the total figures amounted to 398,650 bpd with a balance of 1350 bpd that could still be shared among Kyrgyzstan (979 bpd) Tajikistan (221 bpd), Paraguay (31 bpd) and Sierra Leone (29 bpd) with little remnants still in transit.

Evident and obvious that these countries do not produce oil in the quantity that Nigeria does per day (2.5m), most, if not all of them, have harnessed and are still harnessing other potentials and resources that nature has bestowed on them. As nations, they are doing well for themselves. Some of them have the best infrastructure, technology, military capability, good welfare programs, sound health policy and very good Gross Domestic Product based on Purchasing-Power-Parity (PPP) per capita. Japan’s technology is rated one of the best in the world in terms of its quality and efficiency.

Turkey is one of the most militarily powerful nations of the world wielding tremendous influence not only in the Middle East but also as a member of NATO. Cuba, as small as it is, has been able to withstand US economic blockade since 1959 without ever contemplating caving in to US pressure and Cuba’s communism is as vibrant as ever despite Soviet Union’s ideological retreat. Singapore used to be a third world country but has transformed dramatically to being a first world country with about the 3rd highest per capita ($51,162) in the world after Qatar ($99,731) and Luxembourg ($107,206). Georgia, a post-cold war nation, swaggered for some months against Russia’s military might in 2008 and has exhibited the potential to be one of the most powerful Republics to emerge from the collapse of the Soviet Union. Ireland may not be one of the erratic countries in world politics but with a per capita of $45,888, it shows why it has the best quality of life in the world index and why many Nigerian youths prefer to break the banks to sojourn there instead of staying back here at home with a scandalous per capita of $1,631. North Korea is not a good economic model for any country, but its face-off with the United States over its nuclear development programs cannot be ignored. Its military strength and capability are awesome and intriguing with Japan, South Korea and United States catching cold each time it sneezes. South Korea is one country with a very strong technological and industrial base infrastructure that is the envy of advanced and developed countries like China, India and Japan. It has the highest ICT development index and the largest broadband network covered in the world. And of course, Israel with just 3806 bpd possesses a military capability that is awesome and unimaginable. In the unlikely event of an outbreak of war between Israel, a nation of 7 million people, and Nigeria with a population of 160 million, it will require the intervention of the hosts of Heaven for Nigeria to survive one week. Israel’s agricultural technology is also one of the best in the world and most nations in the world seek their expertise in this regard. Israel, for instance, has the highest production of milk per cow (12,240kg per year) and also compares favourably with other nations endowed with massive agricultural resources like China and Brazil.

Let us shamefully assume that the Nigerian government cannot do anything to stop the 400,000 bpd that thieves cart away on a daily basis, but what good things has it done with the 2.5m bpd that it produces officially and of what benefits has this been to the citizens of the country?
It is an inexplicable paradox that a country that produces and sells about 2.5m bpd is in communion with the poorest nations of the world. There is a collective understanding that a nation like Nigeria has no business with pauperism. But here we are, Nigeria is the undisputed leader of a thousand poor nations! All indices of poverty are in our favour. Our major and strategic highways are nothing but macadams that will make one think that we just finished fighting an invasion war.  Our leaders fly in helicopters many feet above the sea level and therefore cannot feel what we feel on these roads. How do they do it in other countries where they have good roads and efficient transport system that boasts of subways and ferries as against Okada and Keke Napep? As at the time of writing this write up, a barrel of oil (brent) went for $107.45. With the money we make daily from oil, why must we be in this mess?

The gristly motif through which corpses are stretchered off from what we call hospitals into the morgue is one of the reasons people with all kinds of ailment throng the church for healing. Those who should still be alive have been ushered into eternity by medical professionals whose perfunctory attitude to their job is complemented by lack of basic tools to work with. The Pentecostal Clan, a relentless promoter of divine healing, is rapidly expanding its clientele base because the people now find succor for their sickness in the sanctuary of GOD in lieu of the abattoir called hospitals. Nigeria is one strange country where a hospital can decline treatment for a sick person for pecuniary reason. Government and its vacuous health policy remain the harbinger of death to people who deserve and desire life.  How do they do it in other countries where health facilities and medical attention are of highest standard? How do they do it in other countries where medical personnel with the full complements of the government are mobilized just to save a life while the deaths of a score in successive intervals are a regular spectacle in our own “consulting clinics”? With the money we make daily from oil, why must we be in this mess?

Power, a major necessity for industrialization and economic activities is predictably erratic and epileptic. Many industries are on generators. Many are building their own power plants and installing their turbines. Many companies and industries are battling to survive. Many have had a large chunk of their profits invested into the servicing, maintenance and fueling of their generators. Many factories had collapsed with churches springing up in their stead. The Ministry in charge of Power preoccupies itself with the ministration of megawatts by promising to increase and stabilize the megawatts before the second coming of Christ. In major cities where there is evident affluence, the noise of generators is an obvious nuisance to the inhabitants. The environment is further blackened and contaminated by dangerous chemical elements that are not health-friendly.  How do they do it in other countries that they have power supply for 24/7 without turning megawatts into a campaign issue? With the money Nigeria makes daily from oil, why must we be in this mess?

There is no light at the end of the tunnel that the standard of our education will improve. Not with the incessant strikes by all the unionized conglomerates in our universities. Without strikes, our education is in a sorry state. The facilities, real or improvised that can stimulate qualitative education are just not there. The quality of teaching and the quality of learning is very embarrassing. Lecturers and students operate with mutual cooperation in an environment that is very unfriendly to intellectual enterprise. With strikes, the situation is very pathetic. A learning process that is interrupted, not once, not twice in an academic year, is agonizingly disabled. Everything is just not right about our educational system because our government itself is not getting things right. The budget for education is marginally higher than the one for the entertainment of our friends at home and from abroad who have come to have a feel of our grandiose hospitality. How do they do it in other countries that the quality of their education has never deteriorated and their lecturers and non-academic staff never went on a single strike? With the money Nigeria makes daily from oil, why must we be in this mess?

Embarrassed and persecuted by the guilt of profligacy and corruption and their pharisaic purism, our preachy leaders now indulge in suspect gradualism as opposed to the radical change that the citizens yearn for. What explanations do our leaders have for this rare discipline and political will by 16 countries that built their militaries, economies, infrastructure and technology on mere 400,000 bpd in a manner that makes them compete for positive  narratives in global politics and development while a country that produces 2.5m bpd wallows in unpardonable decadence and global irrelevance.

Until everyone of us, leaders and citizens alike, holds certain principles and values so scared and resolves to uphold them even in the face of adversity, our nation cannot make the expected progress and development.