- Written by By Leo Sobechi
HERE are new brooms in town! The brooms are programmed for high stake 2015 politics. Without doubt, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is riding high on favourable public adulation. The celebration of APC in most Nigeria media seems to be borne out of the many years of stifled politics and lack of competition in the polity. In politics, no theme rings a bell in the ears of the suffering masses, the hoi polloi as ‘change’. Even the world’s religions resort to the catch phrase to win converts. And in this age of marketing, publicity makes new things look better. Perhaps it is an attempt to pursue horizontal marketing that the leaders of APC decided to go a-fishing around big names especially former military henchmen and political heavyweights. But the prevailing questions in town are; how far could the razzmatazz go to win voter confidence? What could be distilled as the content of the APC? What does the party intend to achieve by its forward march to an old future? Would APC’s mixed catches make it shun the forbidden fruit of internal democracy?
And by fishing in trouble waters, could APC weather its own domestic storms? However, as things stand, the party has drawn much attention to itself such that serious concerns are being raised for its survival and successful outing.
In the beginning…
IT seemed a matter of historical coincidence that, as Nigeria plans to celebrate one hundred years of British amalgamation of northern, southern protectorates and Lagos into one
State, some political parties forged another amalgamation. Like the Nigerian State, the coalescence of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Democratic Peoples Party (DPP) and some political actors into the All Progressives Congress (APC) is a marriage of necessity. Also, the APC could be seen as a marriage of strangers based on the historical, social and ideological backgrounds of the legacy political parties and personalities.
Against the background of such failed attempts at the formative stage many a Nigerian dismissed the plan as a political impossibility. The adoption of the acronym, ‘APC’ provided another source of doubts as to whether the amalgam would come to be. The nation was astounded by claims from another group that it was first to approach the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the body charged with the regularization of political parties. Who should be entitled to the ‘APC’ acronym between All Progressives Congress and African Peoples Congress, became a source of verbal scuffle as opinions were sharply divided for and against the claimants. As the altercations raged, it was easy to see that the merging parties had fused the spirit and philosophy of function of the anticipated party on the APC acronym. It was obvious therefore that the legacy parties would not shift ground on the assignment of the acronym. But consequent upon the experience of another group, the United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA), many people believed the acronym was a major snag for the much vaunted merger plan. INEC had, citing a petition by the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) chairman, chief Victor Umeh, declined recognition of UPGA saying that the acronym sounded similar to an already existing political party. So having been denied recognition, the promoters of UPGA led by the founder of APGA, chief Chekwas Okorie, went back to the drawing board only to come up with United Progressives Party (UPP).
Most of those who commented on the ‘APC’ imbroglio therefore expected the proponents of the merger to emulate Okorie and his group by coming out with another name or acronym so as to move ahead. Others saw the standoff as a possible roadblock erected by the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to frustrate the mega merger arrangement. To a great extent, the political, nay media space in the country was dominated by the APC palaver. The group succeeded in making the ruling party look like a bully. However, all doubts and reservations started dissolving when on July 31, 2013, the INEC handed the group the official recognition as a political party, the APC acronym and all. Ever since the registration was secured, the party has been grappling with the plans, plots and pangs of building an acceptable and united platform.
Glamour/Temptation
MANY observers have noted the momentum and glamour which the coming of the APC have heralded to the nation’s polity and conclude that the merger was the next best thing that happened to Nigeria’s democracy after the exit of the military. The quasi-democratic setting presented by President Olusegun Obasanjo’s post military era left Nigerians wondering what stamp of democracy snubs citizens’ input the way the PDP has done. Electioneering campaigns became drab as they were shrouded in show of physical might and not intellectual breath or ideation. It was this loss of glamour of politics that APC ushered into the national turf at its founding. And having emerged as a counterforce to the ruling PDP, the new party became so alluring to even some of the bigwigs in PDP. To that extent, analysts believe, PDP can no longer intimidate or bluff its way on account of its sheer size and structural strength.
The first sign that APC was out to influence the direction and dynamics of politics in Nigeria emerged during the controversial Nigeria Governors’ Forum chairmanship election. The outcome of the election showed that certain governors in the fold of the PDP were enamoured of the inchoate party. Apart from hush-hush allegations of clandestine discussions between the PDP governors and the ACN drivers of the merger, there was no apparent evidence of such romance before the NGF election. When the NGF chairman and Rivers State Governor, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, who was seeking reelection against the designs of his party, PDP, allegedly outscored the PDP favoured candidate, Governor Jonah Jang of Plateau State, the suspicion gained grounds. Many observers could not fathom why PDP, which parades more state governors, could lose the NGF chairmanship election. The allegation of sabotage rang loud. Blaming the astounding outcome as the evidence of the APC merger works, the Publicity Secretary of the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties, (CNPP) Mr. Osita Okechukwu, said the nation was actually moving into a two party democracy. Exhibiting some air of triumph, Okechukwu, whose party, CPC, was involved in the merger stated: “It is APC merger at work; it is the first clear sign that the political equation has changed. Because all the forces both latent and potent and tendencies that make up the APC voted for Amaechi. Of The 19 votes he had, 11 were the potent, while the eight are the latent members who would sooner or later join the APC. So when you look at the 19, 11 are with APC and you know that the eight that fought (President Goodluck) Jonathan will not go back to stay with him; so, sooner or later, they would be in APC. It has shown that the political equation has changed.”
Looking into the future back then, the CNPP publicity scribe declared that “any governor that voted for Amaechi is very much aware that as it stands, he has joined the part of the fight and that they (PDP) are not used to forgiving anybody. Their character is not to forgive anybody, so it is not a question of whether they are going back to reconcile.” Okechukwu expressed the hope that the pro-Jang group should back down from taking contrary actions by accepting defeat adding. “We also thank President Jonathan (in advance) for being the first president that could accept defeat unlike his mentor (Olusegun) Obasanjo who could have said no. We hope that he should accept defeat; there is no need for actions on the contrary.” Okechukwu said President Jonathan and Nigerians should understand that immediately there are two dominant political parties in any liberal democracy, no party rules but people’s needs and compromise. He added that instead of taking out a fight over the NGF election, President Jonathan should accept the outcome as the entry into the bipartisan stage of liberal democracy. “In the past 40 years in the United States, (US), it is difficult for any party to decide what happens because the two parties have known that. So before you go anywhere you must go into bipartisanship.
“It is a momentum; when in a liberal democracy it comes to a bipartisan position, it means that you are forced to, not like when Obasanjo opened what they called the natural resource fund and was withdrawing money at will from there. That is the stage we are trying to close, the one party stage; and when you leave one party stage you are entering into proper democracy,” Okechukwu declared, stressing that only in such situation that responsible governance comes to bear. He spoke further: “In any liberal democracy that has succeeded, it means the electorate has the opportunity of choosing one or the other and no one of them can behave any how again. The evidence of that is Ghana; Ghana has entered into the bi-partisan stage, so no one party in Ghana had won with more than 51 or 52 percent.
Gradually it dawned on both watchers of Nigeria politics and Nigerians that Governor Rotimi Amaechi was the arrowhead of the battle (insurrection?) against President Jonathan and by extension, the PDP.
Commenting on for the skirmishes between the Rivers State governor and the Presidency which led to the NGF debacle, the Director of Tropical Watch, a Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO) advocating for citizens’ rights and anti-corruption, Barrister Sam Mbah said the supremacy battle between President Jonathan and Governor Amaechi, lacks ideological premise. Mbah told The Guardian: “The face-off between Amaechi and the presidency leaves concrete impressions of what is wrong with our democratic governance. In the first place, the face-off is not based on any issue, it is not based on any principle, and it is based on vaulting egos on all sides. There is constitutional division of power between the centre and constituent units. Governance is a system of independence and interdependence as well, but instead of fighting for this principle of giving meaning to our federalism, the state and federal actors are just waging battles that do not have any benefits for the ordinary people of this country. If I am asked on whose side I am, I would say that both sides are playing the same stakes of elevating themselves above the people… 2015 is still going to pass us by that our politicians are not yet doing things the way they do it in civilized countries.”
In his reaction shortly after the NGF crisis, former Anambra State Governor, Dr. Chukwuemeka Ezeife, noted that; “sometimes actions and reactions cancel out;” adding that the whole scenario shows element of betrayal and seem to portent a similar occurrence in the near future. He said the defeat of the PDP candidate “means that some of the people they are hoping on may not be able to play ball.” If the transactions with the NGF chairmanship election exposed elements of betrayal, a worse scenario was yet to unfold.
Seven Governors’ Shuttle/New Destination
INITIALLY, when some seven state governors on the PDP platform began their shuttle diplomacy around the country, it was believed that they were merely protesting against the plight of Governor Amaechi, who was suspended from PDP on account of his grandstanding over the NGF chairmanship. But unfolding events were to prove a far more sinister motives for their consultation of high ranking stakeholders of their party, especially former president Olusegun Obasanjo, Generals Ibrahim Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar, as well as former vice president Atiku Abubakar. The governors seemed to have employed the shuttle to draw national attention to the political earthquake they planned to cause. It is dubitable if the governors would have embarked on such a politically sensitive gamble had the APC not been registered. At least with that prospect of an alternative mega platform, the governors gave hard conditions as their panacea for peace and unity in PDP. Apart from calling for the lifting of the indefinite suspension slammed on Amaechi, the Group of seven governors or G.7 for short, called for the immediate removal of Alhaji Bamanga Tukur as national chairman of PDP, cessation of attacks on their supporters by anti-corruption watch dogs and the restoration of PDP structures in Kano, Adamawa and Rivers to the incumbent governors.
The shuttling governors also urged President Jonathan to denounce his ambition for a second term in office or any interest in the 2015 presidential election. But while the governors continued in their circuit (circus?), the mini convention of the PDP approached. If the various reconciliation meetings embarked upon by the G7 governors and the Presidency were expected to bear fruits, the PDP mini-convention threw up new surprises. The G.7 governors knew all along as even the President and his supporters did, that a game of deception and decoy was playing out. The Presidency, for instance, was said to have received graphic intelligence of how the ‘rebel governors were plotting to upstage him for the 2015 election through destabilization of the party. Efforts we
re therefore made to sideline the ringleaders through the mini convention. Even at that the G.7 also got hints that the Presidency was giving full backing to Tukur in the infighting for the soul of PDP. “Having seen many chairmen fall for the antics of the governors, the President was determined not to repeat the mistake of changing the party national chairman just to humour the governors after the case of Dr. Okwy Nwodo,” a source disclosed. But as the August 31, 2013 date for the mini-convention drew near, it was obvious that loyalists of former President Obasanjo and the ‘rebel’ governors would be swept out of the National Working Committee (NWC) of PDP.
Though INEC report faulting the mode of election of some of the NWC was used as the hinge of the remedial convention, some party stalwarts saw it as a strategy by Presidency apparatchiks to ensure that only loyal actors remained in the influential body. In fact, a member of Adamawa State PDP stakeholders, Dr. Umar Ardo, had cried out that the resignation of NWC members, which preceded the mini-convention, was suspicious stressing that the pretext of the INEC report might be a smokescreen after all. Of course, Ardo seemed to be reading the signals correctly because the President’s foot soldiers ascribed the cracks in the NWC earlier in the year to members loyal to the anti-Jonathan camp. When therefore on the D day, the convention committee scorned a unity list agreed on by the parties, it became clear that the battle line had been drawn and there was no going back for President’s men. And to show that the parties in the fight for the soul of PDP have been engaging in some monkey business, the seven governors, led by former vice president Atiku, walked out of the convention venue. It was obvious that by taking such a dramatic step, the group, which later styled itself, the New PDP, (nPDP) wanted to take the shine out of the mini-convention and draw attention to its prognosis. Though the plan was hatched long ago, nobody took special note of Atiku statement condemning President Jonathan’s appointment of headship of a special reconciliation committee to meet with aggrieved party faithful across the country. While condemning the appointment of President Jonathan as leader of the committee, Atiku had declared: “The President has no business setting up any committee on party matters when his interests are widely believed to be central to the ongoing acrimony within the party... It is imperative that they establish an independent committee comprised of credible and neutral members to look into the crises of the party dispassionately and offer a lasting solution because no one can impose their preferred solution on a Party as diverse as their own. All members must be treated fairly whether or not they belong to the President’s camp. Otherwise, we will force people to exercise other options available to them, which the Party may not like.”
With the benefit of hindsight it could be seen that the “other options, which the party may not like” is the walkout on the President and subsequent formation of nPDP and subsequent merger with APC!
Words War
IT is to the remote influence of APC that the series of letters and verbal darts targeted at the President could be attributed. First it was the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, raising the alarm about the non-remittance of $49 billion by the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation, (NNPC).
Then House of Representatives’ Speaker, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, upped the refrain of President Jonathan’s weakness towards combat of spiraling official corruption. It seemed a pattern had been set for concerted opposition within the PDP against the government they formed at the centre.
What followed was General Obasanjo’s 18-page letter, where the former President itemized instances of corruption, ineptitude, insensitivity, insecurity and duplicity about a second term ambition against the incumbent President.
However, after detonating his letter ‘bomb’ Obasanjo was in turn hit by his daughter’s scud missile of a missive. But when the former Senate leader, Ameh Ebute, released his own letter denouncing Obasanjo’s sanctimonious protestations, Nigerians thought President Jonathan had replied his erstwhile benefactor by proxy. The triangular duel became complete when the President released his condescending reply. In the last analysis, the motive behind the words war could be reduced to the 2015 presidential election and APC was happy to have set the calculations in motion.
The most worrisome aspects of the verbal warfare between the incumbent President and his predecessor, is the exchange on the issue of national security. Obasanjo had alleged in his explosive letter that President Jonathan authorized the training of snipers preparatory to the elimination of 1, 000 political actors placed on a special watch list. The former President also cried out that the nation was descending to a similar state to what obtained during late military head of state, General Sani Abacha. But in his very courteous reply, President Jonathan recalled a particular incident in the life of the nation that touched on the state of insecurity during Obasanjo’s era. Specifically, President Jonathan stated: “In terms of general insecurity in the country and particularly the crisis in the Niger Delta, 2007 was one of the worst periods in our history. You will recall three incidents that happened in 2007, which seemed to have been orchestrated to achieve sinister objectives. Here in Abuja, a petrol tanker loaded with explosives was to be rammed into the INEC building. But luckily for the country, an electric pole stopped the tanker from hitting the INEC building. It is clear that this incident was meant to exploit the general sense of insecurity in the nation at the time to achieve the aim of stopping the 2007 elections. It is instructive that you, on a number of occasions, alluded to this fact. When that incident failed, an armed group invaded Yenagoa one evening with the intent to assassinate me. Luckily for me, they could not. They again attacked and bombed my country home on a night when I was expected in the village. Fortunately, as God would have it, I did not make the trip. I recall that immediately after both incidents, I got calls expressing the concern of Abuja. But Baba, you know that despite the apparent concern of Abuja, no single arrest was ever made. I was then the Governor of Bayelsa State and the PDP Vice-Presidential candidate. The security people ordinarily should have unraveled the assassination attempt on me.”
Does the statement by President Jonathan leave the impression that his benefactor tried to engineer a seeming accident to truncate the 2007 election so as to continue in office? That may not amount to much but the travails of late Kano State Governor, Alhaji Abubakar, leaves much cause to worry that the nation’s leaders must have been playing tricks with national security and security apparatuses.
First Rimi’s wife was abducted by some people. Later his son was associated with the matter only for the former charismatic Kano governor, who made bold efforts to contest the presidency, to ‘survive’ an armed robbery attack. Though Rimi later died following that traumatic encounter, recent developments especially Obasanjo’s apprehension about a possible hit list and training of snipers call for further investigations into Rimi’s demise. Was Rimi consulting political stakeholders preparatory to contesting the 2007 presidential election when he was attacked? Could it be that those who wanted to foist late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua as PDP’s presidential candidate did not want Rimi to spoil the show given his wide acceptability? What the authorities may decide to make of all these, is left to conjecture, but they point to the ominous designs for the 2015 election. And APC may have given way to PDP renegades to cancel out the monster they raised!
Forward, to an old future?
MAY be on account of the euphoria of having destabilized the octopus PDP, the promoters of APC seem to be more inclined to netting more bigwigs from the troubled giant. With eyes on what transpired in 1998/99, the APC leaders appear set to adopt PDP’s tactics for the 2015 electoral battle. During the transition programme, most military bigwigs that found their way into PDP worked for the emergence of General Obasanjo as the presidential flag bearer of the party and eventually the winner of the election. Most of the political actors in the original merger arrangement still believe that chief Olu Falae of the APP/AD ticket did not lose the election to Obasanjo and PDP. The treatment meted to Falae in Maiduguri, where he was prevented from campaigning, as well as the curious way Second Republic vice president, Dr. Alex Ekwueme, was ‘outspent’ for the PDP ticket at the Jos convention, combine to dispose APC leaders towards the current thinking. So far, the only stated intention of APC is the desire to wrest presidential power from PDP. Therefore, any consideration of an ideological framework to serve as the bulwark for the party’s progress, stability and unity seem to sound hogwash to the leaders. Like an APC stalwart quipped in reaction to the party’s visits on influential Nigerians, “does ideology win elections in Nigeria?”
The idea of wooing retired military leaders including Obasanjo that lost out in the scheme of things in PDP simulates a forward march to the old future of winning elections by muscle. In spite of the media mileage APC has covered so far, its approach seems to disdain connect with the masses. This may prove fatal for the wave making political grouping.
Purport/ Implications
THE idea of wooing of PDP bigwigs buttresses the accusation of desperation Nigerians level against APC leaders. Despite the success of the horizontal marketing approach, which keeps the party on steady stream of public awareness, the party seems to have been hijacked by the nPDP converts. This way, the accommodation given to the G.7 and nPDP members is gradually simulating assimilation by the new entrants.
The methodology follows the same pattern adopted by the shuttling governors before their berth in APC. The most significant implication of the wooing of PDP former haymakers is the possibility that APC has abdicated the central reason for its mobilisation, namely, providing a credible alternative to PDP. What this portrays is that the party is more concerned for the elite rather than the ideal or the masses for that matter. It was the former President Ronald Reagan’s speechwriter, Ms Peggy Noonan, who stated that loyalty to ideal, rather than personality is to be preferred.
Nobel laureate, Prof. Wole Soyinka, may have been thinking along that line of reasoning when he thumbed down APC for its membership drive that seem to target prominent politicians of the PDP stock, including former President Obasanjo and former military president, General Ibrahim Babangida. Given the roles played by these personalities, could it be said that APC appreciates the need for fair competition for political power as described by free, fair and credible election?
That notwithstanding, how could APC fare if its excessive interest in disgruntled PDP chieftains backfires during the convention? Whether Atiku would eventually join APC is out of the question because the much that the Turaki can do is invest his money on APC without plunging into the party based on his former experience with ACN. Not that alone, the decision of handing state party structures to estranged PDP governors, apart from hurting internal democracy creates new stimuli for friction in those states. Here are some instances: In Kano, Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso has to contend with ex-governor Ibrahim Shekarau, who has labored all this while for APC to come into fruition. In Sokoto, former governor Attahiru Bafarawa had been attending several meetings to ensure that the merger worked. Suddenly, incumbent Aliyu Magatakarda Wamako, appears on the scene to pilot the affairs of APC in Sokoto. Granted that these big time politicians were formerly of ANPP, what led to their parting ways could easily come back to haunt APC in the days ahead. It is perhaps, apprehension over what the future holds for such combination that Tambuwal is bidding his time to cast anchor!
In Adamawa, Brigadier Buba Marwa and his loyalists are laying strong claims to the leadership and control of APC structure there. Even in Imo State, Governor Rochas Okorocha, has the great wall of political ambush erected by former governor Achike Udenwa and chief Mike Ahamba, over the control of APC. Without knowing it, APC has by encouraging indiscipline in the fold of its rival, set the stage for disputation and wrangling in its own fold. After all, Americans say that what goes around comes around. Unless APC and its new friends aim at capturing power through impeachment of the incumbent president, the course they have embarked on would prove disastrous. That may be the point Soyinka and Femi Falana, wanted to convey. While the Nobel laureate dismissed the party’s approach as “lacking in moral focus and tantamount to political prostitution,” lawyer and rights activist, Falana (SAN), queried the recruitment drive. Falana wondered why the APC leaders had no plans to involve the youth, stressing that, “the mobilization of past leaders and other PDP chieftains has shown that APC is only interested in power.”
As the APC national convention draws nearer, it is left to be seen how far its conspiratorial politics would take it.
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