ANALYSIS
As the race towards 2015 gathers momentum, many incumbent governors are either running for Senate or trying to handpick their successors.
THISDAY checks across the country shows that 10 governors are facing serious headwinds in their attempts to handpick their successors. Here are the challenges they face.
Godswill Akpabio/Akwa Ibom State Godswill Akpabio, the high performing governor of Akwa Ibom State may not be able to match his excellent performance as governor with his desire to become a senator and choose his successor if current trend continues. Akpabio has expressed his desire to represent Akwa Ibom North West/Ikot Ekpene senatorial district, a seat currently occupied by Senator Aloysius Etok. He has also anointed his immediate past SSG, Mr. Udom Emmanuel, as his successor. As at today, all notable political leaders in the state are opposed to him except Senator Aniete Okon. Even the team that brought him to office, led by his former SSG, Obong Umana Umana, and former Finance Commissioner, Mr. Bassey Albert Akpan, is against him. Apart from that, majority of Ibibio, who are the most populated ethnic group in the state feel that a man from the minority (Annang) should not be allowed to impose his will on the majority and they believe that if PDP leadership bows to his will, most other leaders could look to the All Progressives Congress (APC) which could imperil President Jonathan's chances in the state. The irony of the Akwa Ibom situation is that Akpabio emerged as governor in spite of the then incumbent Governor Victor Attah, who was opposed to his aspiration.
THISDAY Findings: Akpabio may win the battle of the PDP primaries but may not win the war thereafter.
Sullivan Chime/Enugu State Like Akpabio, Governor Sullivan Chime is facing serious headwinds, not only in his bid to handpick his successor, but also his desire to have him and his sister, Ifeoma Nwobodo, who was his chief of staff, go to the Senate. Already, he has unveiled his preferred successor, Hon Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, and even mobilized for the controversial emergence of Ugwuanyi as consensus candidate. In his own senatorial quest, Chime has a formidable opponent to contend with - the deputy Senate President, Senator Ike Ekeremadu, who is currently occupying the Enugu West senatorial seat on the platform of PDP. In a bid to realize his senatorial dream and that of his former chief of staff, Chime directed that none of the old senators who had served more than one term should return to the National Assembly. Both actions have polarized the state PDP , as the party is now broken into camps of members loyal to the governor and the deputy senate president. Even the consensus arrangement which apparently threw Ugwuanyi up does not seem to stand again as the speaker of the Assembly, Hon. Eugen Odo, has denied that he was a party to the arrangement and has gone ahead pick PDP gubernatorial nomination form. Currently, the state PDP does not have a generally recongnised and acceptable leadership.
THISDAY Findings: Despite his health challenges, Chime is believed to have performed well, but his desire to have him and his sister as senators, at the same time handpick a governor for Enugu State, is facing serious headwinds, if not thunderstorms.
Abiola Ajimobi/Oyo State Abiola Ajimobi, is rated as one of the high performing governors in the South West having embarked on massive infrastructure development, particularly road construction. The All Progressive Congress governor, who is on the last lap of his first term is seeking re-election for another term. But there are strong indications that he may be a victim of stomach infrastructure as he is said neglected the material needs of the people, not only within his party but also the state. Apart from that, he also has a formidable opposition massed against him. Not a few believe that his emergence as governor in 2011 was because of the crisis in the state PDP - which was then the ruling party - a development that made some of the notable PDP politicians who lost in the power game to the then Governor Alao Akala to work for Ajimobi in the general election. Some of them have come out to announce that they regretted supporting Ajimobi against their party. Also, Akala,
who is a grassroots politician and one that is believed to have played politics of stomach infrastructure, apart from also embarking on infrastructure development during his tenure as governor is back in the race. The ongoing efforts to reconcile Akala and Senator Rasheed Ladoja, a former governor and influential politician in the state, is also a threat to Ajimobi's re-election bid.
THISDAY Findings: A united PDP ahead of the general election is a potent threat to Ajimobi's re-election bid.
Mukhtar Yero/Kaduna State Mukhtar Ramalan Yero, is currently serving the remaining term of former boss, Mr Patrick Yakowa., Yero came into power following the tragic death of Governor Yakowa in a helicopter crash in Bayelsa state. The death of Yakowa, a Christian from Southern Kaduna, and the emergence of Yero, a Muslim from Northern axis of the state, set the state on edge for so long. Since his emergence as governor, he had been facing stiff opposition from Yakowa's loyalists and kinsmen who view is emergence as a deprivation of the Southern Kaduna slot. It took efforts of Vice President Namadi Sambo, who is also a former governor of the state, to help mobilise support for him in those early days of his administration. But the allegations that he abandoned his predecessors projects further strengthened the opposition against his him from the Southern zone. Beyond that, Yero also has former Governor Ahmed Makarfi to contend with. Markarfi, who is grassroots politician, has not hidden his opposition to Yero, whom he believe to be the godson of Vice President Sambo - his arch political enemy. Also, with the 2015 approaching and the massive appeal the APC has in the North, including Kaduna, Yero has lots of work to do to realize dream.
THISDAY Findings: Yero may win his party's nod but his re-election bid would require substantial support from Yakowa's loyalists and kinsmen in a united PDP to sail through. Headwinds and thunderstorms ahead.
Garba Umar/Taraba State Garba Umar, emerged as acting governor of Taraba following the plane crash involving Governor Danbaba Suntai. The crash occurred less than a month after Umar was appointed deputy governor by Suntai after the impeachment of the former deputy governor, Sani Abubakar Danladi. Though Suntai survived the crash, he suffered injuries that has made it impossible for him to be physically in charge of the state affairs. But Taraba, like Kaduna, nurses a delicate balance between Muslims and Christians. Suntai is a Christian while Umar is a Muslim. For several months, Umar could not govern the state officially in acting capacity as loyalists of Governor Suntai ensured he continued to govern the state as deputy governor. His emergence as acting governor followed nationwide outcry after it emerged that Suntai was indeed incapable of physically governing the state. That same Suntai's camp which kept prevented him for several months from becoming acting governor and which has fiercely opposed every move to subject Suntai's health status to scrutiny is lurking around the corner against his bid to be elected governor.
THISDAY Findings: Even though he may secure the party's ticket, he has the camps of his former boss to contend with (Which are quite formidable) and the delicate fault lines of religion and ethnicity that have been shaping the politics of the state over the years. Serious headwinds and thunderstorms ahead.
Gabriel Suswam/Benue State Since Benue State Governor Gabriel Suswam indicated his interest in contesting the Benue North East senatorial seat, an open political battle has raged between him and incumbent senator and former national chairman of Peoples Democratic Party, Chief Barnabas Gemade. In fact, indications that Suswam was planning to unseat Gemade emerged two years into his senatorial tenure, when a group of politicians under the umbrella of 'Zone A PDP Elders' said they had endorsed the governor for the Benue North East seat. The group, which also inaugurated a committee to drive the senatorial campaign for Suswam, was believed to be sponsored by the governor or his associates. There has been no love lost between the governor and the senator since the former's senatorial ambition became obvious.
But Gemade is not the only one Suswam is fighting in the state. Suswam is also feuding with his deputy, Steven Lawani, over the governor's apparent indisposition to the idea of being succeeded by Lawani, who has declared his desire to be the next governor. The governor has continued to play his cards close to his chest on his governorship favourite, Terhemen Tar Zoor, merely reiterating that the state's PDP elders and caucus would determine his successor. What is not in doubt, though, is that, like most governors in the country, he does not want his deputy to succeed him.
Lawani is an Idoma, one of the major tribes in the state, which has never produced a governor of the state. Suswam is also confronted by serious battle, given the former governor George Akume's APC's interest in the upcoming election.
THISDAY Findings: Given the traditional control of state party structures by the governors, Suswam may likely win the PDP senatorial ticket for Benue North East. He may also succeed in getting whoever he favours to pick the PDP governorship ticket. But winning a general election may be a herculean task for a divided PDP confronting a strong state APC.
Isa Yuguda/Bauchi State There appears to be an increasingly cold relationship between Governor Isa Yuguda of Bauchi State and some of the key figures in the state's PDP family. Though, it was Yuguda who 'nominated' his predecessor, Adamu Mu'azu, for the post of PDP national chairman in January after a seemingly successful rapprochement reportedly facilitated by President Goodluck Jonathan, the old wounds are believed to be opening again. The point of controversy this time is the choice of Yuguda's successor.
The rift between Yuguda and Mu'azu dates back to the 2007 general elections, when Yuguda won the governorship election against Mauazu's alleged anointed candidate, Nadada Umar. But in the same election, Mu'azu lost the Bauchi South senatorial seat to Yuguda's then personal assistant, Senator Bala Mohammed, the current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory. Ahead of the next election, Yuguda is alleged to be favouring former PDP national secretary, Dr Musa Babayo, as successor, Mu'azu is said to be supporting former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Alhaji Yayale Ahmed.
In addition to fighting on those two critical fronts, Yuguda is also seeking to unseat Senator Adamu Gumba as senator for Bauchi South senatorial district. Gumba had won the seat, which became vacant in 2009 following the appointment of Mohammed as minister, with the alleged support of Yuguda. Gumba's victory against popular politicians like Ali Wakili was surprising to many. But the win was allegedly negotiated on the understanding that Gumba would vacate for Yuguda at the end of his governorship tenure in 2015. Gumba has display apparent interest in going for another term, and this does not go down well with Yuguda.
Wakili has defected to All Progressives Congress and is vigorously preparing to take over the Bauchi South seat.
THISDAY Findings: Despite fighting on various fronts, Yuguda may still win the PDP senatorial nomination, and win in the general election if he concedes the governorship to Mu'azu's nominee to provide a united PDP against headwinds of APC.
Theodore Orji/Abia State The Abia State governor, Chief Theodore Orji, nurses the ambition of going to the senate at the end of his tenure next year. He also plans to install his son, Chinedu Orji, as Speaker as a checkmate to his favourite governorship nominee, Okezie Ipkeazu, the man in charge of refuse disposal. But Governor Orji's nominee is facing formidable heavyweights, many of who are also backed by former governor Orji Kalu, who is also a senatorial aspirant. They include former MD of Diamond Bank, Alex Otti, Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe, Senator Nkechi Nwaogu and President of Masters Energy, Dr. Uchechukwu Sampson Ogah. Orji has not openly disclosed his favourite for the governorship, though he backs the zoning of the post to Abia South senatorial district. This zoning arrangement has been stretched to mean that the next governor of the state should come from the Ukwa/Ngwa area, and it is on this basis that Nwaogu is nursing a governorship ambition.
Orji also appears not to have a good relationship with Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe, one of the key governorship aspirants from Abia South, though, this has been denied by both men. Many expected the governor to back Abaribe, but such support does not seem to be coming.
The governor is believed to be cautious to avoid any backlash against his senatorial ambition.
THISDAY Findings: Orji's senatorial ambition may sail through if he concedes the governorship ticket.
James Ngilari/Adamawa State Adamawa State Governor James Ngilari is holding a tough governorship mandate. He became governor on September 10 following a court ruling that sacked Umaru Fintiri. Fintiri had been acting governor since July 15, when Murtala Nyako was impeached as governor. Prior to the court ruling, things appeared to be stabilising in the politics of the state after an initial shock that followed Nyako's impeachment. PDP had held its primaries and picked Fintiri as its candidate ahead of the October 11 governorship bye-election fixed by INEC to elect a substantive governor. And the ruling party in the state had also zoned the governorship seat to Adamawa Central senatorial district and secured an agreement among the aspirants that whoever won the bye-election would not contest the governorship election in 2015.
But the court ruling seemed to upturn the agreements. Now Ngilari, who is from the Northern senatorial district, is on a collision course with his party. His body language shows a desire to contest the governorship election next year, but the PDP National Working Committee on October 29 reiterated its commitment to the earlier zoning arrangement that reserved the position for Adamawa Central zone.
Besides, Fintiri, from the same zone as Ngilari, is also believed to be uncomfortable with the zoning arrangement and may contest the governorship election. The question is PDP needs to keep its commitment to people like Nuhu Ribadu who were prevailed upon not to contest the cancelled governorship bye-election.
THISDAY Findings: The situation in Adamawa remains dicey. Ngilari is not likely to get the party's ticket. If he does, he is unlikely to win.
Jonah Jang/Plateau State These are no easy times for Plateau State Governor Jonah Jang. Many in the state confess that the governor is Godsend, given his excellent performance in virtually every facet of governance. But the politics of succession has pitted him against many critical political factors in the state.
Jang has consistently said that he would wait on God to reveal his successor. But there are growing allegations that the appeal to supernatural intervention may just be a smokescreen to perfect a plan to handover to his Berom kinsmen in Plateau North senatorial zone. The belief in some quarters is that Jang may have decided that the next governor of the state would come from the quartet of Evangelist Chris Bature, Barrister Edward Pwajok, Senator GNS Pwajok, and Mr. ID Gyang, all of Berom ethnic stock as the governor. But many believe that Jang's ultimate game is to pick his son, Yakubu, who is one of his advisers. The governor is also nursing a senatorial ambition, which readily puts him opposition to the current senator for Plateau North, Senator Gyang Pwajok.
THISDAY Findings: The insistence on a successor from his own ethnic stock and senatorial district may create ill will against Jang that can be extended to his party. With this, the governor may win the party nominations but he may not be able to shepherd PDP to victory at the general elections.
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