| Temple Chima Ubochi |
 | ubochit@hotmail.de Bonn, Germany  |
If you put a federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand (Milton Friedman)Just as a poetic discussion of the weather is not meteorology, so an issuance of moral pronouncements or political creeds about the economy is not economics. Economics is a study of cause-and-effect relationships in an economy (Thomas Sowell)
It is no crime to be ignorant of economics, which is, after all, a specialized discipline and one that most people consider to be a 'dismal science.' But it is totally irresponsible to have a loud and vociferous opinion on economic subjects while remaining in this state of ignorance (Murray N. Rothbard)
ome Yoruba leaders, such as Otunba Gani Adams, while acknowledging that the South West is a place that you cannot use the media to deceive, think that the national conference was one of the best achievements of Jonathan since he became the president of this country in 2011. Those south-west leaders, and many others from other zones, have implicit faith in President Jonathan's ability to turn Nigeria around, because, according to them, those who are saying that Jonathan does not merit second term are those who are eager to take over power from him. For people like Otunba Adams, if Jonathan can survive with the presence of Boko Haram, the attack from MEND at the beginning of the government, and in 2009, the economic meltdown, and at the end of the day, our GDP is the first in Africa, definitely if we can have him in second term without much problem, he can do more than we expected. Otunba Adams sees President Jonathan as a detribalized president who does not have the mind of tyranny.
In his words: "He is the only president that people will abuse and he will not ask the security agents to arrest and try you. What members of the opposition did to Jonathan and he absorbed it, they could not have done10 percent of it to former President Olusegun Obasanjo when he was in power. His simplicity cannot be compared, his humility is something to write for others to emulate. So, he is a president that can build a strong foundation for Nigeria's nascent democracy. I believe he merits a second term. People are blaming Jonathan for the hardship in the country. Why can't they blame state governors and lawmakers who are being given constituency allowances? When I talk about politicians I speak without exception. Many governors and local government chairmen cannot give account of what they collect every month from the allocation account. Before the current fall in the prices of crude oil, some were collecting about N6-7 billion every month and all they do is to embark on elitist projects that have no direct impact on the lives of common people, only to come and accuse Mr. President that he is not performing. One thing I respect Jonathan for is despite pressures from the ruling Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP), he refused to influence the result of elections as we have witnessed from the result of Anambra, Edo, Ekiti, Ondo and Osun states governorship elections. We were surprised when a large number of security agents were sent to Ekiti and Osun states during the last elections; it was later we got to know that some members of the party gave him a wrong assessment of the situation that there would be crisis during the elections".
Buhari is yet to tell Nigerians his economic plan for Nigeria, if he wins the election. One can safely say that Buhari has no economic plan for Nigeria. All we hear from him is only piecemeal, archaic and unrealistic; he's yet to tell us how he plans to achieve anything for Nigeria. Buhari is only over-emphasizing the tackling of corruption and insurgency, without giving us any meaningful plan for the economy. He seems to have no idea how the economy works, as he was asked what he will do if he wins the election, since there is a drop in oil price. Buhari answered that the first thing he will do is to "stabilize the oil price". Imagine that? So, Buhari doesn't know that there is nothing he can do about the oil price, as it is the international market forces that influence the prices of oil? Market forces, upon which the price of oil hangs, are independent of countries' vagaries of politics, and Buhari doesn't know that. So, how can he rule Nigeria, when as a former head of state, he still lacks a rudimentary knowledge of political economy? Only an international political or power or economic bloc, through its actions, and there must be a reason for that, can influence the prices of oil, as was the case during the Arab-Israeli war of 1973, when the Arab oil producers boycotted oil export, that made Nigeria to export more oil, well above its quota, thereby making so much money then.
That was the time Gowon, as the head of state, made the infamous statement that Nigeria has so much money and doesn't know how to spend it. Gowon then went on to offset other countries' debts and financial obligations, when he could have invested it in the industrialization of Nigeria. Gowon could have built more refineries, more universities and technological institutes then (lack of economic foresight).
For those who don't know: The 1973 oil crisis began in October 1973, when the members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC, consisting of the Arab members of the OPEC plus Egypt, Syria and Tunisia) proclaimed an oil embargo. By the end of the embargo in March 1974, the price of oil had risen from $3 per barrel to nearly $12.
The oil crisis, or "shock", had many short-term and long-term effects on global politics and the global economy. It was later called the "first oil shock". HistoryNet Magazine (January 16, 2014) narrated that "The October 1973 War had begun. Before it was over, battalions of tanks, hundreds of aircraft, and legions of soldiers would clash in one of the late 20th-century's most momentous wars. Oil prices would soar to unprecedented heights, and the specter of nuclear war would loom over the battlefield. Though brief-fighting ended within a month-the conflict had enormous impact. It broke a political stalemate and made possible a long Egyptian-Israeli peace that's unique in the roiling Middle East. The roots of the fighting in 1973 lay in the Six-Day War of June 1967, when the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) trounced combined Arab armies and took the Golan Heights from Syria, the Sinai Peninsula from Egypt, and East Jerusalem from Jordan".
Office of the Historian, Bureau of Public Affairs, United States Department of State (Last modified on October 31, 2013) reported that During the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imposed an embargo against the United States in retaliation for the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military and to gain leverage in the post-war peace negotiations. Arab OPEC members also extended the embargo to other countries that supported Israel including the Netherlands, Portugal, and South Africa. The embargo both banned petroleum exports to the targeted nations and introduced cuts in oil production. The onset of the embargo contributed to an upward spiral in oil prices with global implications. The price of oil per barrel first doubled, then quadrupled, imposing skyrocketing costs on consumers and structural challenges to the stability of whole national economies.
Since the embargo coincided with a devaluation of the dollar, a global recession seemed imminent. U.S. allies in Europe and Japan had stockpiled oil supplies, and thereby secured for themselves a short-term cushion, but the long-term possibility of high oil prices and recession precipitated a rift within the Atlantic Alliance. European nations and Japan found themselves in the uncomfortable position of needing U.S. assistance to secure energy sources, even as they sought to disassociate themselves from U.S. Middle East policy. The United States, which faced a growing dependence on oil consumption and dwindling domestic reserves, found itself more reliant on imported oil than ever before, having to negotiate an end to the embargo under harsh domestic economic circumstances that served to diminish its international leverage. To complicate matters, the embargo's organizers linked its end to successful U.S. efforts to bring about peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors".
Chika Onyeani (The African Sun Times, NY) wrote that "All Nigerians have heard from Buhari since he accepted the presidential candidacy of the APC is how he is going to fight corruption. But Nigeria faces problems other than corruption, which, no doubt, is important to the welfare of good governance. Every Nigerian leader has pledged to fight corruption; every world leader has pledged to fight corruption. There is corruption everywhere in the world, but what is very important is how you are going to lift the standards of life of the average Nigerian. Right now, oil price, the main stay of the Nigerian economy, has fallen to its lowest level. The Naira is depreciating fast. Nigerians are yet to hear what Buhari is going to do with less money coming into the country.
Promising Nigerians a pie in the sky is not what is needed now. What is needed are specific policies spelt out to address the issues of the economy, but issues of security. How are you going to deal effectively with the Boko Haram insurgency if in the past you have been an enabler of the group through your indiscreet utterances?" Segun Olanipekun also wrote that "The third problem facing Buhari's campaign team is the lack of a well-articulated policy document on how to identify and proffer solutions to Nigeria's myriad problems. Often, what are churned out by members of his campaign team are copious excerpts from the manifesto of the APC which in itself is not a bad idea. But a serious contender needs to go further by drawing up a distinct policy framework of his own vision, though embedded in the ideological spectrum of his party, as an indication of his preparedness to solve priority problems facing the nation that is presently enmeshed in disorder and chaos. Perhaps, to fill this gap, the Buhari team has turned his acclaimed zeal to end corruption into a boring campaign refrain, always recalling his 'no-nonsense' war-against indiscipline (WAI) to cow the population when he was a military head of state between 1983 and 1985.
But the Buhari team should be reminded that this is a different political climate demanding dexterity and not decrees. A democratic, 21st Nigeria definitely should have no place for such ancient governance template. It would have been more relevant if Nigerians are told about his plans to waddle through the complex and complicated political waters of Nigeria. No one from his team, not even Buhari himself, has clearly and succinctly given good answer to this recurring issue. By now and from experience, Buhari ought to know that putting forward a well-defined, thoughtful and comprehensive policy programme on such issues as infrastructure, power; unemployment, corruption, insecurity and numerous others, is a demand of serious leadership. Such a document has to be Buhari's contract with Nigeria. So, the Buhari campaign has not done well in the third crucial political campaign game called social contract with the Nigerian people!"
To point out that Buhari is an economic neophyte who knows nothing about Nigeria's economic history or records, and a person who has no economic plan for Nigeria, and can't run an economy, if he wins the election, he failed to get his record accurate when he lied in Kaduna recently. There, he said: "On the issue of unemployment, you in Kaduna are aware of the many industries that used to be here. We used to have companies like the Nigerian airways, the Nigerian Railway and others, but since the PDP came to power 16 years ago, these companies have collapsed."
Someone pointed it out to Buhari that he lied here, by reminding him that:
"In 1983, before General Buhari overthrew the Shagari democratically elected government, Nigeria Airways Ltd has a fleet of about 30 aircrafts!
As at 1986, barely one year after General Buhari was overthrown from power, Nigerian Airways had accumulated debts that far outstripped its revenues and had a dismal staff-aircraft ratio of 500-1!!!
By 1988, cost cutting measures led to the discontinuation of flights to a number of African destinations including Cotonou, Dakar, Douala, Kinshasa, Monrovia and Nairobi!
At the end of military rule in 1998, after being plagued by mismanagement, corruption and over-staffing, Nigeria Airways had incurred debts of more than $60m, a poor safety record and only one single aircraft flying domestic routes and two leased aircrafts.
How about the Nigerian Railways?
Nigerian Railway Corporation declared bankruptcy in 1988!
In 2002, passenger services were discontinued altogether!
In 2006, plans were made to restore the rail lines and add new locomotives.
In 2012, under President Jonathan, scheduled passenger service was restored on the Lagos - Kano route
In December 2014, again under President Jonathan, scheduled passenger services was also restored on the Port Harcourt - Enugu route which terminates in Maiduguri!..this is not all! The coastal railway project is about to begin. The Abuja Kaduna Fast rail route is about to begin".
What we have heard from Candidate Buhari so far is bogus economic policies or plans hedged round with lies and incompatible facts and figures.
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To be continued!
TIT BITS
THE THANX IS ALL YOURS!!!
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