by Tayo Babarinde
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RECENT discoveries and interception of arms and ammunition in some parts of northern Nigeria has raised fears and alarm in security and southern political circles as to the goals of the forces behind the smuggling of arms. While similar arm discoveries had happened in some southern states in recent past, the frequency of such discoveries in the North in recent days has reportedly increased the level of intelligence shadowing and surveillance in the area.
As insurgency remains a major headache in the Northeastern part of the country, the growing cases of arm stockpile in the North-West states are said to be giving security analysts sleepless nights, especially as clues as to the motives of the masterminds are yet unclear. As of the time of filing this report, security agencies are said to be focusing on both local and external sources in their bid to unravel the sudden surge in the trafficking menace.
Sunday Tribune was told that the initial suspicion was that the importation of arms was due to transnational islamist terrorists arming local jihadists, as well as using Nigeria as a transit route in the Sahel arms and related smuggling trade. This line of thought was reported to be the main preoccupation of the security agencies for sometime until in the last one month when political motivation reportedly entered the review process.
While analysts are yet to find direct linkage between political actors and the arm storage and smuggling, there are fears that threats from key leaders suggest a zone preparing for war depending on the outcome of the 2015 race. An insider told Sunday Tribune that the intensity of arm stockpiles correlates with the heightening of tension and mounting attacks on the presidency by political opposition and political dissenters within the ruling party.
It will be recalled that the arm cache found in Kano is still a mystery despite the ongoing prosecution of the Lebanese involved in the entire saga. The security agencies are also said to be at a loss over what alleged Hezbollah Shiite agents will be doing with the Sunni-led Boko Haramists on the arms stockpile. Boko Haram is said to belong to the Sunni school of Islam, attributing a link between them and the Lebanese under trial over the arms cache is said to be proving very difficult among intelligence analysts in the country. Though it is being suggested that the Shiite group could have its own separate mission in the country.
The Kano arms discovery, therefore, is reported to have given rise to many theories, one of such is the possibility of a non-religious involvement, with political undertone being the chief reason. This theory was said to have gained ground after the Zamfara State government got embroiled in an arm importation controversy, claiming it wanted to arm vigilance groups in the state. The way and manner the state government imported the arms allegedly without police approval had since become a subject of investigation which is said to be attracting attention of many within the security circles.
A security official confessed under the condition of anonymity that importation of arm without prior approval is a violation of the law. Said he: “for a state government to have done that, it is a matter to be taken seriously”.
Though the Zamfara State government had since justified its action on the need to combat criminal gangs operating freely in the state, keen watchers of the 2015 drama, however, pointed out that arming vigilantes in the countdown to 2015 sent mixed signals. Many people believed that once Zamafara succeeded on this matter, other state governments would follow suit, leading to proliferation of arms in the country and a potentially explosive electoral year in 2015.
While the controversy over Zamfara arm importation is still boiling, a tanker filled with assorted arms and ammunition was impounded between Kebbi-Zamafara axis with the source of the importation still unknown.
With hundreds of such tankers in remote parts of northwestern Nigeria, fears are spreading that there may be a deliberate programme to acquire arms by some unknown elements in the northern parts of the country ahead of 2015 elections.
Four days after the tanker was impounded, another arm cache was discovered in the sleepy state of Jigawa with exchange of fire between security agencies and those described as Boko Haram operatives. Security analysts, however, faulted the reference to Boko Haram, as Jigawa has never witnessed any Boko Haram attack since the insurgency started. Others claimed the exchange of fire did not explain the owner of the arms or who masterminded their stockpile in the state.
Another source told Sunday Tribune of the fear being nursed in that sector, saying “the situation is scary. We cannot say for sure that all these arms are imported by islamists. We cannot prove that. We can also not prove that politicians are behind the caches of arms for electoral purposes. All what we know for sure is that there is an arms build-up in the core North”, the security, a security official, said.
While the real motive behind the huge arms stockpile is still under investigation by security agencies, the statement credited to the Chief of Staff to the President, Chief Mike Oghiadohme, warning against civil war is cited by other analysts to argue that the presidency already has more facts over security situation in the country and, particularly, about arms build-up in northern part of the country than it is letting out. Oghiadohme had called attention to the tragedy of the last civil war, warning that leaders and elders should beware of actions and utterances capable of plunging the nation into another conflict.
The arms build-up situation has become an open issue within the Nigerian military, which is battling insurgency in the North-East. Though the military is not ruling out political opportunism, it howver suspects the Islamists to be behind the arms build-up, while the wider intelligence community are fingering political forces as being neck-deep in the menace.
Sagir Musa,spokesman of the Joint Task Force in Borno, while confirming the arms proliferation gave greater insight into the problem facing the North and the country as a whole in a recent statement on the issue.
Said he: “Nigeria’s borders are massive with hundreds of footpaths crisscrossing to neighboring countries of Cameroon, Chad and Niger with links to Mali, Libya and Sudan. From conservative estimate by locals, there are well over 250 footpaths from Damaturu/Maiduguri axis that link or lead direct to Cameroon, Chad or Niger. These paths, which are mostly unknown to security agencies, are unmanned, unprotected and have continued to serve as conveyor belts for arms and ammunition trafficking into Nigeria.
“It is disheartening and unfortunate that the “merchants of death” have since devised methods to beat security agencies at the borders, chief among them, through the footpaths. These methods include the use of camels, donkeys and cows to traffic arms, ammunition and drugs such as cocaine into Nigeria. The fact that the weapons are small, light and collapsible makes it easy to be concealed and moved on camels and donkeys’ backs in a specially crafted skin or thatched bags mainly meant for the illegal “expedition” undetected. Similarly, some cows and grains merchants in the North- East sub – region of the country device means of hiding cache of arms and ammunition in empty fuel tankers, vehicle engines and bags of grains.
“The “grains” are transported in large number via trucks, trailers, lorries and old model pickup vans and Jeeps with little attention given to them by security agents. The use of Jega-type of tricycles (KEKE-NAPEP) as well as camels, donkeys, and cows (moving in flocks) to deceive, hide and conveniently traffic arms in some parts of the North are ways hitherto unknown, not well known”, Musa noted.
He explained further that “the Libyan and Malian rebels are desperate to exchange arms for money to Boko Haram terrorists, their financiers and collaborators as the sect has since been affiliated to Al-Qaida in the Maghreb. This has added to the overwhelming challenge of the influx of illegal aliens, arms, ammunition and sophisticated IED materials into the country and an efficient and effective fight against terrorism”, Musa had stated. Sunday Tribune was, however, told that the political angle is already taking the center stage of discreet investigation into the discoveries. Already, it was gathered that investigation into the Kano arm caches has been extended to foreign soil, while the security agencies are said to be mounting pressure to ensure that Zamafara vigilantes are not armed with weapons.
As the arms influx expands, the questions on the lips of keen security analysts are many. Who is preparing for war? Is the North becoming a Somalia? And is the South too secretly building up its own arms,and /or has not been undetected? Could the flexing of muscles by politicians a subtle declaration of war over 2015?
Only a thorough investigation by the security agencies can provide the necessary answers.
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