BY LAGUN AKINLOYE,
ANALYSIS
Rotimi Amaechi's Chatham House speech on governance showed the difficulty in separating political manoeuvrings from technical governance.
Amidst an ongoing and bitter dispute with President Goodluck Jonathan and the structures of the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) to which he belongs, all eyes in Nigeria at the moment are on the rebel governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi.
In May, the young governor ran - successfully, and allegedly against the wishes of the PDP leadership - for re-election as chairperson in the powerful Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF). Shortly afterwards, he was suspended from the party - a move that was officially unrelated to the forum vote but rather over a local council issue. Political hostility since then has only intensified with other governors and political figures becoming involved in the political skirmishes amidst a whirlwind of accusation and speculation.
With a crisis in Rivers State and within the PDP as the backdrop, it was with great anticipation then that a packed out crowd awaitedAmaechi's speech at London's Chatham House yesterday morning.
Ambitious and energetic
Titled 'Reform and Resource Governance in Nigeria', Amaechi's talk attempted to analyse the economic, security and developmental challenges currently facing Nigeria, as he went through topics from education to investment to infrastructure to agriculture. Using Rivers State as a case study, Amaechi reeled off a list of his many achievements as governor of the oil-rich state.
In education, he said 500 primary schools would soon be ready and that children would receive free uniforms and textbooks. In healthcare, he announced that every ward in the state can now boast of a primary healthcare centre and that secondary and tertiary centres are increasing springing up with the help of public-private partnerships.
Regarding agriculture, Amaechi emphasised the success of newly-privatised banana plantations and fish farms. And in terms of infrastructure, the governor talked of the roads, bridges and power systems under construction.
However, as interesting as news of development in Rivers State was, it was in the current political crisis that the audience was most interested.
Charismatic, young and successful, Amaechi is seen as an example of good governance and purposeful leadership amongst his supporters and many in the oil-rich Rivers State. Outspoken, powerful and ambitious, however, Amaechi is also seen as a threat by many PDP stalwarts, especially with the 2015 elections fast approaching.
For some time now, Amaechi has been seen as a potential future threat amongst the upper echelons of the PDP. Like a growing number of governors and political figures in Nigeria, Amaechi has criticised the ruling party for lacking direction and becoming increasingly autocratic. And with the 2015 elections on the horizon, many believe the 47-year-old governor has vice-presidential ambitions.
President Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, has faced growing opposition within the country over the past months, and is expected to face stiff competition from within the PDP in the primaries to decide the party's nominee to run for president.
That competition is most likely to come from disgruntled northern factions, but as is tradition within the PDP, any northern presidential candidate will need a running mate from the South.
This is where the energetic and popular southerner Amaechi holds particular significance, and many believe that his decision to run for re-election as chair of the Nigerian Governors Forum - allegedly against the wishes of the PDP hierarchy who backed another candidate - was a step in this direction.
Clipping his wings
In retaliation, the PDP has not been quiet. Amaechi was suspended from the party shortly after his rebellious move, though the official PDP line was that the suspension was due to a violation of party rules regarding a local council issue. And then in early July, five members of the Rivers State House of Assembly local to Jonathan tried to impeach the Speaker of the House, an ally of Amaechi.
The five lawmakers were joined by a group of thugs, and the police and military stood by as the House was attacked. Amaechi's security personnel entered the fray and were eventually able to fend off the attackers.
When asked about the political crisis after his speech at Chatham House, Amaechi was blunt. He claimed that a witch hunt is taking place within the PDP, and that senior forces are not only attacking him, but looking to foment trouble in his state as a way to undermine his perceived vice-presidential ambitions.
Amaechi claimed that militancy and kidnapping - a problem the governor had previously successfully addressed - had increased in the past six months. He accused the federal government of standing in the way of various Rivers State investment opportunities such as a proposed deal with an Austrian and German firm regarding a syringe factory, which Amaechi said was frustrated by the Minister of Health.
Moreover, the governor claimed government attacks had also taken on a more personal form, such as with the grounding of his plane; the refusal to allow two helicopters purchased for security operations to enter to country; and the withdrawal of Amaechi's security detail.
Friends and foes
However, whilst under this alleged assault Amaechi has not been alone. Dissent within the PDP has long been rising and last week, five Nigerian governors - from Jigawa, Kano, Adamawa, Sokoto and Niger - embarked on a 'solidarity' visit to Rivers State.
On the tour, the governors jointly signed a communiqué reiterating their support for Amaechi, whom they insisted remained the Chair of the Nigerian Governors Forum, and condemned the events in the Rivers State House of Assembly as a "threat to peace, security and democracy".
The five 'rebel' governors even took their 'save democracy tour' to the doorsteps of Olusegun Obasanjo, former President and erstwhile political godfather to Jonathan, and of Ibrahim Babangida, Nigeria's former military head-of-state. Babangida praised the governors as "real patriots", commenting that "they have taken the right step to consult widely in trying to find a solution to some of the leading problems".
However, as pleased those opposed to Jonathan may have been with the visit, it seems clear no number of 'democracy' tours will in of themselves engender any kind of solution or end to the political impasse. And the longer the crisis continues, it is the citizens of Rivers State who will bear the heaviest burdens.
After all, although they command vast budgets, Nigerian states are not independent - this is the case in any federal system but even more so in the likes of Nigeria where politics is highly personal.
The development of Rivers State is thus inextricably tied to the fate of Nigeria as a whole, and this inescapable truth leaves Amaechi and the other 'rebel' governors with limited options. They could join one of Nigeria's increasingly prominent opposition parties and strive for a new political order, or they could reconcile with the PDP hierarchy.
Whichever option they chose, it seems painfully clear - regarding both the crisis in Rivers State and in the country as a whole - that as long as personal politicking continues to dominate Nigerian politics, it will be very difficult for technocratic governance to take place, let alone the kinds of real political debate necessary to address the many serious challenges facing Nigeria.
Lagun Akinloye, a British Nigerian, studied Sociology and Social Policy at the University of Leeds. He is particularly interested in the history and politics of West Africa, specifically Nigeria.In addition to his role at Think Africa Press, Lagun is an executive member of the Central Association of Nigerians in the the(CANUK)Email: lagun.akinloye@thinkafricapress.com. Follow him on twitter @L_Akinloye.
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