Monday 30 September 2013

Nigeria to boost school security after deadly attack

BBC


Family members gather outside vehicle carrying a corpse in Damaturu on 29 SeptemberFamily members gathered in Damaturu on Sunday to identify the bodies
Authorities in Nigeria say there was no security protection at an agricultural college where up to 50 students were shot dead as they slept on Sunday.
The students were killed by suspected Islamist gunmen in their dormitory in Yobe state, north-eastern Nigeria.
Official Abdullahi Bego told the BBC the government and military would work to increase protection in schools.
North-eastern Nigeria is under a state of emergency amid an Islamist insurgency by the Boko Haram group.
Boko Haram is fighting to overthrow Nigeria's government to create an Islamic state, and has launched a number of attacks on schools.
Schools 'to stay open'
Abdullahi Bego, special advisor to the Yobe state government, told the BBC on Monday that no security forces had been operating in the area when the attack on the College of Agriculture took place.
He acknowledged that security forces are meant to undertake regular patrols of educational institutions.
He said schools in the area would not be closed because that is what the "terrorists", as he called them, wanted.

Boko Haram at-a-glance

  • Founded in 2002
  • Official Arabic name, Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati wal-Jihad, means "People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad"
  • Initially focused on opposing Western education
  • Nicknamed Boko Haram, a phrase in the local Hausa language meaning, "Western education is forbidden"
  • Launches military operations in 2009 to create an Islamic state across Nigeria
  • Founding leader Mohammed Yusuf killed in same year in police custody
  • Succeeded by Abubakar Shekau, who the military wrongly claimed in 2009 had been killed
  • Suspected to have split into rival factions in 2012
  • Military claims in August 2013 that Mr Shekau and his second-in-command Momodu Bama have been killed in separate attacks; no independent confirmation
"We are committed to providing education to our children in Yobe state and in north-eastern Nigeria," he said.
The state authorities would work with the military to reinforce protection at schools, he added.
Casualty figures from the attack vary, but a local politician told the BBC that around 50 students had been killed.
The Nigerian military said soldiers had collected 42 bodies and taken 18 wounded students to a hospital in Yobe's state capital, Damaturu.
Footage shot by the Associated Press shows the bodies of at least 23 young men lined up on the floor of what appears to be a makeshift mortuary in the town.
About 1,000 students had fled the campus in the wake of the attack, according to college provost Molima Idi Mato.
The gunmen also set fire to classrooms, a military spokesman in Yobe state, Lazarus Eli, told Agence France-Presse.
The college is in the rural Gujba district.
In May, President Goodluck Jonathan ordered an operation against Boko Haram, and a state of emergency was declared for the north-east on 14 May.
Many of the Islamist militants left their bases in the north-east and violence initially fell, but revenge attacks quickly followed.
Map
In June, Boko Haram carried out two attacks on schools in the region.
At least nine children were killed in a school on the outskirts of Maiduguri, while 13 students and teachers were killed in a school in Damaturu.
In July in the village of Mamudo in Yobe state, Islamist militants attacked a school's dormitories with guns and explosives, killing at least 42 people, mostly students.
Boko Haram regards schools as a symbol of Western culture. The group's name translates as "Western education is forbidden".
Boko Haram is led by Abubakar Shekau. The Nigerian military said in August that it might have killed him in a shoot-out.
However, a video released last week purportedly showed him alive.
Other previous reports of his death later proved to be unfounded.

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14 Nigerian banks to enjoy $7bn reserve

Vanguard News - Latest updates from Nigeria, including business, politics, entertainment, fashion, health, technology, naija lifestyle
By Les Leba

“The report of the 14 Nigerian banks which had been appointed as Asset Managers of Nigeria’s reserves was carried on the back page of The Guardian Newspaper of the 5th of October 2006.  The report confirmed that “already deposits worth $7bn representing part of the apex bank’s share of foreign reserves estimated at about $38bn had been released to the consortium of bankers, according to the CBN Head of Corporate Affairs, Mr. Festus Odoko”.

“In this event, the CBN had made good its promise to invite Nigerian banks which have consolidated $500m capital base to a “foreign reserves banquet” if they show evidence of collaboration with internationally recognized financial houses.  The Guardian report further confirmed that all 14 Nigerian banks are already associated with reputable affiliates, but it is not clear whether or not the M.O.U. between both parties involves joint responsibility for profits and loss, with global best banking practice and ethical standards, or if collaboration is simply glorified banking correspondence.
“Nonetheless, critics wondered if the 14 banks which had just raised their capital base under duress to N25bn could also raise additional capital of about N35bn in so short a space of time to qualify for management of CBN’s reserves, in which case, CBN may have quietly dropped this requirement so as to pursue its declared agenda!
“But whose interest is CBN serving?  The sum of $7bn is a huge sum of money in any currency and disbursement of such huge public funds should not be treated with levity.  Although in the Guardian report “Mr. Odoko confirmed that the appointment of the 14 banks was ratified by the Investment Committee of the CBN on Tuesday, 3/10/06, the deposits worth $7bn had already been shared by Thursday morning, 5/10/06!

“Nigerians may not realize that with one stroke of the pen, the CBN had committed Nigeria to possibly its largest single investment ever!  The questions is whether or not the returns from this huge investment will stimulate productivity and employment, and improve our social welfare.  If not, who will benefit from this biggest ever single investment paid upfront by the Nigerian nation?  Yes, you have got it, the 14 banks who will wear broad smiles to their overseas vaults!  Although CBN has not yet declared what returns it would demand from the 14 fattened beneficiaries, it is unlikely that the CBN will get more than prevailing international cost of about 3% interest per annum for such placements.
“Incidentally, the 14 favoured banks are at liberty to invest anywhere in the world!    Thus, while we are pleading with foreign investors to come to Nigeria to support economic and industrial development, we are simultaneously exposing our hard earned foreign exchange to a consortium of Nigerian banks which have a consolidated capital base of less than $3bn for minimal gain, without asking for some measure of audit control or equity participation.

“Nigerian banks have found it unattractive to invest in the real sector, particularly the income and employment generating SMEs; so, it would be foolhardy to expect that the largesse of $7bn low interest loan would change their attitude to the Nigeria economy.  The bizarre strategy of a minimal returns of 3.5% for a $7bn investment without a time limit is amplified by CBN’s willingness to conversely pay interest rates of between 12 and 17% for monies it borrows from the domestic capital market in Nigeria!
“Indeed, in the event that the 14 banks are free to repatriate all or part of the $7bn back to the Nigerian capital market, it is not difficult to predict where their interests would lie: you have got it; the obvious destination would be further patronage of government’s treasury bills and bonds where they can earn rates of return of up to 17% from government borrowings!  “Worse still, moneys so collected for sale of government bills and bonds are regrettably not tied to any specific infrastructural project but are inexplicably just kept idle in CBN vaults.
“Mr. Odoko, the CBN mouthpiece had also indicated in the Guardian report quoted above that “the $7bn represents the apex bank’s share of the foreign reserves!’  I beg your pardon!   What work did the CBN do to earn $7bn?  The Constitution does not separate a share of dollar reserves for the CBN; our crude oil earnings belong to the Nigerian people as expressed by the three tiers of government; the Senate and the House of Representatives would have defaulted in their constitutional duties if CBN is not invited to defend why $7bn of our reserves should be ‘given’ to 14 banks without oversight approval.”

The above is a summary of the above article, which was first published in October 2006.  Not surprisingly, less than two years after Soludo’s lauded banking consolidation, most Nigerian banks tittered on the verge of collapse.  There has never been any confirmation that the 14 banks repaid the $7bn “soft loan” granted by the CBN before the banking crisis; consequently, it is more likely that Nigeria’s $7bn may have ultimately ‘gone with the wind’ during the ensuing financial meltdown!   Nonetheless, such probable default has not stop the banking sector from receiving additional largesse in excess of N5tn ($30bn) from lifelines from CBN and AMCON interventions between 2009 and 2010!
Notwithstanding, CBN’s misguided generosity the banking sector has remained resistant to providing the real sector with loanable funds at affordable rates to stimulate industrial rejuvenation, economic growth and increasing employment opportunities.
In the above event, it may be necessary for the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission to take a closer look at the circumstances and the ultimate fate of CBN’s extraordinary loan of $7bn to the banks in 2006; Nigerians surely have a right to know, especially now that a new set of managers has been selected, complete with their own parastatal establishment to manage the $1bn assets designated as our sovereign wealth fund, while we still go cap-in-hand to solicit for development loans with oppressive interest rates.

SAVE THE NAIRA, SAVE NIGERIANS!

FG’s N14trn budget for three years

Vanguard News - Latest updates from Nigeria, including business, politics, entertainment, fashion, health, technology, naija lifestyle

By Dele Sobowale

“We have projected crude oil production for 2014 to be 2.3883mbpd [million barrels per day]. This figure is lower than 2.526mbpd budgeted in 2013…it is hoped that government’s efforts at tackling the (oil theft) problem will yield further results in the medium term, hence production is estimated at 2.5007mbpd and 2.5497mbpd for 2015 and 2016”. Federal Government to the National Assembly. September 17, 2013.

The document, 2014-2016 Medium Term Expenditure Framework, proposed N4.495 trillion as the budget for 2014 – N425 billion less than the current year. For that sense of reality demonstrated, the Federal government deserves some credit.
It would have amounted to economic self-delusion of the worst kind if the Federal government had failed to take into account the failure of this year’s budget, largely on account of the shortfall in crude shipments while preparing next year’s budget proposals. By July, revenue shortfall for 2013 had already reached N686bn and are projected to get close to N1 trillion by year end. So instead of N4.925bn proposed for 2013, the nation will be extremely fortunate if N4tn is received. Thus, while the 2014 proposed budget is lower than the 2013 appropriation, it is N495bn more than what can be reasonably expected this year.

Incidentally, Nigeria, like other predominantly oil exporting nations had benefited immensely from political turmoil in the Middle East. Since the 1973 Yum Kippur War between Israel and the Arab countries, decisively won by Israel, which led to an activist Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, Nigeria had been a perpetual beneficiary of trouble in the Gulf. Indeed, it might not be wrong to state that two straight years of peace in the Arab countries could spell doom for Nigeria.
Our dependence on trouble in the region for our survival is almost total. So, to some extent, the projections for 2014 are partly based on the assumption that tension will persist in the Nile Basin. Without that assurance, the National Assembly might as well throw the Medium Term Expenditure Framework into the waste basket. In no single year, since 2011, had the projections proved accurate and no budget had been faithfully implemented. The MTEF lacks credulity for a number of reasons. Let me mention a few.
History is against it. No budget presented by any government since 1999 had ever been implemented as approved by the NASS. From Obasanjo’s first one, the 2000 budget, to Jonathan’s 2013, now headed for the graveyard, no single budget was ever executed as proposed. Each budget had failed for various reasons but the most common has been lack of will by the leaders to implement them.
Next to the lack of will, and perhaps allied to it, is the unprecedented amount of time all three Nigerian presidents – Obasanjo, Yar’Adua and Jonathan – had been spending attending to internal political conflicts within the ruling party – the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. It is quite possible that no other Head of State, in the world, spends as much time as the Nigerian president attending to purely political party problems. The leading papers in every country tell the story regarding what engages the leaders’ time. In Nigeria, virtually everyday, the lead stories are always about PDP and the President. Seldom is the economy in the lead and usually for negative reasons. There is a clear absence of a president leading the charge towards achieving stated economic goals for the year, for mid-term and for the long run.

The appointment of Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the Minister for Finance, as Coordinating Minister for the Economic Team, CMET, as well as the selection of a handful of business moguls and governors, to manage the economy, while freeing the president from overseeing routine economic decisions has been allowed to elide into presidential abdication of responsibility. The buck still stops at the president’s table. Dr Ngozi was not elected by the people of Nigeria. Alhaji Dangote will not be held responsible if things go disastrously wrong. Every one of these people can walk away if and when they choose and nobody can ask them any questions. The President can delegate his duties to anybody he chooses but he is still responsible for the results. Right now Jonathan is behaving as if he is not responsible.
At any rate, the 2014 budget proposal is heading for the stormiest sessions the NASS had ever experienced. To begin with, many lawmakers, for political and selfish reasons, are spoiling for a fight. Like sharks, they can smell blood in the water – the President’s blood, that is. They know that the 2013 budget had not, and could not possibly, be implemented. Generated revenue had been running below budget from January; they also are aware that only a miracle can produce any positive turn-around before the year ends. States are owed backlog of revenue allocation, ASUU remains on strike and government claims it cannot afford to pay, doctors have joined the strike and soon public servants throughout Nigeria will feel the lash. The President is the perfect scapegoat for political demagogues bent on bringing him down at all costs.

With the 2013 budget set to ignite passions and “bring out the beasts” in our elected officials at Federal and State levels, the credibility of the 2014 budget is already in doubt. Fourteen straight years of “Voodoo economics” which had formed the basis of Federal budgets had eroded any confidence in the current proposals. Only a gambler will bet his money that the 2014 budget will be better executed than the previous thirteen and for one reason; at least.

Wednesday 25 September 2013

Doomsday scenario plan would divide North Korea

BBC


  South Korean Army tanks cross the Hantan River in Yonchon county, north of Seoul, during military exercise against imaginary North Korea attack WednesdaySouth Korean army divisions are poised to fight at short notice along the DMZ

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It sounds like a doomsday scenario drawn up by strategists at the height of the Cold War.
Chinese armies move south into the Korean peninsula and collide with American and South Korean forces moving north. The resulting clashes spark war between nuclear-armed superpowers.
A new report says such a confrontation is still a real danger in the event of a sudden collapse of the North Korean regime.
The report produced by the US research institute, the Rand Corporation, says that North Korea is a failing state that could fall apart at any moment.
It says agreement is urgently needed between Washington and Beijing on contingency plans - including setting up a temporary line of division inside North Korea to keep their armies apart.
East German-style collapse
Analysts have been predicting the imminent collapse of North Korea for the last two decades.
The regime has surprised many with its resilience; surviving two traumatic changes of leadership, sanctions over its nuclear programme and a famine that may have killed more than a million people.
A convoy of armoured vehicles heads towards Tiananmen Square on Friday, Oct. 1, 1999 in Beijing as part of the celebrations for the 50th anniversary of China under communist rule.Chinese armoured columns could drive on Pyongyang in the event of regime collapse
Despite that, the Rand Corporation insists that the North Korean system is extremely brittle and could collapse with little warning.

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The conflict could escalate significantly in ways that neither side would want”
Bruce Bennett, military anlayst
It cites endemic economic problems and food shortages - even allowing for current signs of growing prosperity in the capital, Pyongyang. It says the regime's ability to keep the population ignorant of the outside world is being rapidly eroded, and points to reports of discontent within the military - including rumours of assassination attempts against the leadership.
A senior South Korean official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the government in Seoul was also deeply concerned about an abrupt collapse of North Korea - in the style of East Germany or the Soviet Union.
The official also stressed the need for credible contingency plans and more co-operation with China.
Flood of refugees
But the South Korean government is likely to be appalled by the proposal to give China a zone of control in North Korea - which it regards as sovereign Korean territory.
The Rand Corporation report says that China is likely to intervene militarily in North Korea in the event of a sudden breakdown of government there. The assassination of the leader Kim Jong-un is cited as a possible event that could lead to internal feuding and precipitate foreign intervention.
China would want to stem a flood of North Korean refugees across its border. It could also move to pre-empt the sudden appearance of American troops on its frontier - an event that has taken the two countries to war once before.
"Intent on trying to secure as much territory as possible, Chinese and ROK-US forces would eventually make contact and suffer accidents as the forces from the two sides come within range of each other," warns the report's author, military analyst Bruce Bennett.
"In some areas, forces could be bypassed by forward elements of the other side and find themselves in the other side's rear area. If conflict were to begin between the ROK-US forces and the Chinese forces, that conflict could escalate significantly in ways that neither side would want," the report says.
South Korean Marine amphibious assault vehicles land on the seashore during a joint landing operation by US and South Korean Marines in Pohang, 270 kms southeast of Seoul, on April 26, 2013.US and South Korean amphibious forces could strike deep into North Korea
Most South Koreans are unenthusiastic about sudden reunification, fearing the vast expense would derail their own economy.
Secure WMD
But an abrupt collapse would force the issue. South Korea has always claimed sovereignty over the whole Korean peninsula and has the backing of its American allies in the pursuit of eventual reunification.
Its army divisions strung out along the southern edge of the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) could be expected to advance rapidly in the event of a political vacuum north of the line.
The troops would be tasked with tackling any remaining hostile elements of the North Korean military, feeding the population and establishing security. Special forces and airborne units would move ahead to secure weapons of mass destruction - including North Korea's nuclear and chemical programmes.
Chinese forces racing south from the Yalu River could be tasked with similar objectives.
Rand believes that rules and scenarios need to be agreed and discussed with China well in advance.
It is proposing negotiation on three potential lines to be drawn across the peninsula, making clear how far south Chinese forces would be allowed to penetrate.
One line would be just 50km (31 miles) from the Chinese border; the furthest would bisect the capital Pyongyang itself and another major city on the east coast, Wonsan.
China would be able to use the territory to stem refugee flows and establish a buffer against US forces - on an understanding that its occupation was temporary and that US forces would not seek to stay north of the existing DMZ.
Mistrust and suspicion
It sounds an unlikely scenario.
A further division of the peninsula would infuriate nationalists in South Korea, who feel their country's rising power as an economic force in the world.
China does not trust American intentions in Korea or anywhere else, complaining that Washington is already trying to contain it with a policy of encirclement from Mongolia to Vietnam.
Some South Koreans already suspect a Chinese plan to block reunification by annexing the north, or parts of it, and securing natural resources and ports on the Pacific for Beijing.
China has been unwilling to discuss any such scenarios so far, for fear of upsetting its Communist party allies in Pyongyang.
But diplomats say China has shown more signs of co-operation recently, even quietly helping some North Korean refugees seeking safe passage to the South.
Nationalist passions are running high in North-east Asia at the moment and hardliners in China may insist on a solid territorial buffer against feared American encroachment - at almost any cost.
However, pragmatists on all sides also have influence, arguing that contingency planning is essential for what could be a security nightmare at the heart of the world's most dynamic economic region.
North Korea may survive as a totalitarian anomaly for another two decades. But no-one in the neighbouring capitals can be confident that calamity won't strike next week.

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Jonathan to UN: Nigeria deserves UN Security Council seat

Vanguard News - Latest updates from Nigeria, including business, politics, entertainment, fashion, health, technology, naija lifestyle
BY UDUMA KALU, WITH AGENCY REPORT

President Goodluck Jonathan, Tuesday, in New York made a strong case for Nigeria’s election to the United Nations Security Council, just as South African President, Jacob Zuma backed the Nigerian president’s call for democratisation of the UN Security Council.
Addressing the world leaders and other delegates at the opening of the 68th session of the General Assembly of the United Nations, President Jonathan declared that Nigeria’s commendable performance on previous occasions when it held a non-permanent seat on the security council, should assure the global community that the country deserved to be elected to the council again for the 2014-2015 session.
“Our support for the United Nations Security Council in its primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security has been total and unwavering.
“We have, in previous membership of the Council, demonstrated both the political will and capacity to engage in key responsibilities.

A statement by the President Adviser on Media, Dr Reuben Abati, quoted the President as saying, “I am pleased to state that Nigeria has received the endorsement of the Economic Community of West African States and the African Union. We, therefore, urge this August Assembly to endorse Nigeria’s candidature for a non-permanent seat on the Security Council.”
Democratisation of Security Council members
The President also called for faster action towards the democratisation of the Security Council, saying that Nigeria and other developing countries were concerned about the lack of progress in the reformation of the United Nations.
President Jonmathan said: “I believe that I express the concern of many about the slow pace of effort and apparent lack of progress in the reform of the United Nations, especially the Security Council. We believe strongly, that the call for democratization worldwide should not be for States only, but also, for International Organisations such as the United Nations.
President Goodluck Jonathan  addressing the openimg session of the 68th Session of the United Nations Summit  at the United Nations Organization  Headquarters, New York. Photo by Abayomi Adeshida
President Goodluck Jonathan addressing the openimg session of the 68th Session of the United Nations Summit at the United Nations Organization Headquarters, New York. Photo: Abayomi Adeshida
“That is why we call for the democratization of the Security Council. This is desirable for the enthronement of justice, equity, and fairness; and also for the promotion of a sense of inclusiveness and balance in our world.”
Backing Jonathan’s call, South African President Jacob Zuma criticised the United Nations Security Council as ‘outdated’ and ‘undemocratic’ ahead of a world leaders’ meeting in New York, according to a report yesterday. The current Security Council “might have by now outlived its usefulness”, Zuma said at the UN.
Developing nations have called for reform of the Security Council, which has since World War II accorded veto rights on substantive resolutions to five permanent members, the United States, Britain, France, Russia, and China.
“You have a situation where those who possess the power of veto talk more war than peace,” Zuma told South African newsmen at the outset of the UN General Assembly meeting this week.
“You have a minority that has the last word and unfortunately is no longer helping. It is actually becoming part of the problem,” he said, decrying the Council’s actions over conflicts in Iraq and Libya over the past 10 years.
“As small countries we believe the arrangement is unfair, it is undemocratic, it’s not good any more.”
Terrorism threat to global peace, security
Noting that the world continues to be confronted with many serious challenges, President Jonathan called for a renewed and concerted effort by the international community to effectively resolve issues that currently impede global peace, stability and progress.
“Our world continues to be confronted by pressing problems and threats. No statement that will be made during this session can exhaust the extent of these problems. The world looks to us, as leaders, to provide hope in the midst of crisis, to provide guidance through difficult socio-political divisions, and to ensure that we live in a better world.
“We have obligations to the present generation, but we have a greater obligation to generations yet unborn who should one day inherit a world of sufficiency irrespective of the circumstances of their birth or where they reside on the globe. We must work to make that world a reality in recognition of our common heritage.

“We must dedicate ourselves to working together to address global, regional and national challenges and deliver a more peaceful, equitable and prosperous world for all. It is our duty. We must not fail”,” President Jonathan declared.
The President also restated his called for the international community to confront the menace of global terrorism with greater resolve and determination.
“Terrorism constitutes a major threat to global peace and security, and undermines the capacity for sustained development. In Nigeria, the threat of terrorism in a few States in the North Eastern part of our country has proven to be a major challenge to national stability. We are therefore confronting it with every resource at our disposal with due regard for fundamental human rights and the rule of law.
The reign of terror anywhere in the world is an assault on our collective humanity. Three days ago, the stark reality of this menace was again brought to the fore by the dastardly terrorist attack in Nairobi, Kenya. We must stand together to win this war together,” President Jonathan said.
Jonathan reinstates commitment to MDGs
The President said there will be more commitment to millennium development goals by his administration.
“There have been several conflicts with devastating consequences in virtually all regions of the world, as global citizens; we have a sacred duty to free our world of wars, rivalries, ethnic conflicts and religious division.
“Our collective efforts in our drive for a better world will continue to bind us together”.
Realising the need to sustain peace in Nigeria beyond the year 2015, Jonathan said he is committed to building systems that will see that the conflicts and insecurity confronting the nation doesn’t pull it apart.
“Mr. President, Nigeria continues to support the efforts of the United Nations in addressing the global initiatives to combat the menace of the illicit trade in small arms and light weapons.
“We have redoubled efforts to address this arduous challenge within our borders and across the West African sub-region. In doing so, we also recognised the need for a God-based global partnership in the on-going battle against trans-border crimes, including terrorism and acts of piracy
“It is regrettable that these scourges are sustained by concerted assets by non-state actors to illicit small arms and light weapons with which they foster insecurity and instability across the continent
Arms Trade Treaty
“For us in Africa, these are the weapons of mass destruction; it is therefore in the light of our collective obligations and unseasoned struggle to end this nightmare that I congratulate member states on the adoption of the arms treaty in April this year
“Our hope is that, upon the entry into force, the arms treaty will herald an era of accountable trade in conventional arms, which is critical to the security of nations”

The President welcomed Nigeria’s selection as co-Chair of the United Nations Expert Committee on Financing Sustainable Development.
“The importance of this Committee’s assignment cannot be overstated. For the post-2015 development agenda to be realistic, it must be backed by a robust financing framework which I hope will receive the strong backing of our organisation’s more endowed members,” he said.
President Jonathan congratulated UN member-states on the adoption of the Arms Trade Treaty.
“Our hope is that upon its entry into force, the ATT would herald an era of accountable trade in conventional arms which is critical to the security of nations,” the President said.
Jonathan condemns use of chemical weapons in Syria

He condemned the reported use of chemical weapons in the Syrian crisis and welcomed current diplomatic efforts to avert a further escalation of the crisis in the country.
President Jonathan also urged world leaders to adopt measures and policies that will promote nuclear disarmament, protect and renew the world’s environment, and push towards an international system that is based on trust, mutual respect and shared goals.

Sunday 22 September 2013

A Point of View: Democracy and Islamic law

BBC


Meeting in Turkey after the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, December 1918French and Turkish military officials meet after the defeat of the Ottoman Empire
Should a nation be defined by language and territory, by ruling party or by faith, asks Roger Scruton.
To understand what is happening in the Middle East today we must look back to the end of World War I. The Austro-Hungarian Empire had been destroyed, and from the ruins emerged a collection of nation states.
These nation states - including Austria, Hungary, Romania and Czechoslovakia - were not arbitrary creations. Their boundaries reflected long-standing divisions of language, religion, culture and ethnicity. And although the whole arrangement collapsed within two decades, this was in part because of the rise of Nazism and communism, both ideologies of conquest.
Today we take the nation states of central Europe for granted. They are settled political entities, each with a government elected by the citizens who live on its soil.
When the Austro-Hungarian Empire collapsed, so too did the Ottoman Empire, whose territories embraced the whole of the Middle East and North Africa.

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Roger Scruton
  • Roger Scruton is a writer and philosopher
  • A Point of View is usually broadcast on Fridays on Radio 4 at 20:50 BST and repeated Sundays, 08:50 BST
In his four-week stint, he considers the nature and limits of democracy:
The victorious allies divided up the Ottoman Empire into small territorial states. But very few of these have enjoyed more than a temporary spasm of democracy. Many have been governed by clans, sects, families or the military, usually assisted, as in Syria, by the violent suppression of every group that challenges the ruling power.
People often explain the relative absence of democracy in the Middle East by arguing that the carving up of the region into territories bears no relation to the pre-existing loyalties of the people.
In a few cases it worked. Ataturk, general of the Turkish army, was able to defend the Turkish-speaking heart of the empire and turn it into a modern state on the European model. Elsewhere, many people identified themselves primarily in religious rather than national terms. Hassan al-Banna, who founded the Muslim Brotherhood in 1928, told his followers that bringing together the world's Muslims in a supra-national Islamic State, a Caliphate, should be a top priority.
The result of imposing national boundaries on people who define themselves in religious terms is the kind of chaos we have witnessed in Iraq, where Sunni and Shia fight for dominance, or the even greater chaos that we now witness in Syria, where a minority Islamic sect, the Alawites, has maintained a monopoly of social power since the rise of the Assad family.
Iraqi men wearing labels in Arabic to identify their different ethnic and religious affiliations, June 2013Prayers against divisions in Iraq - the shirts read (from right), Kurdish, Yazidi, Turkmen, Shia, Sunni, Christian
By contrast Europeans are more inclined to define ourselves in national terms. In any conflict it is the nation that must be defended. And if God once ordered otherwise, then it is time he changed his mind. Such an idea is anathema to Islam, which is based on the belief that God has laid down an eternal law and it is up to us to submit to it: that is what the word Islam means: submission.
Sunni Islam was the official faith of the Ottomans, and no other form of Islam was formally recognised. Toleration was extended to the various Christian sects, to Zoroastrians and to Jews. But the official story over several centuries was that the empire was ruled by Sharia, the holy law of Islam, augmented by a civil code and by the domestic law of the various permitted sects.
Ataturk abolished the Sultanate and established a new civil code, based on European precedents. And he drew up a constitution that expressly severed all connection with Islamic law, forbade Islamic forms of dress, outlawed polygamy, imposed a secular system of education, and enjoined allegiance to the Turkish homeland as the primary duty of every Turk. In any crisis, when loyalty is at stake, you are to identify yourself first of all as a Turk, and only then as a Muslim. And he allowed the sale of alcohol, so that the Turkish people could drink to their new condition in the way that he preferred.
Ataturk remade Turkey as a comparatively open and prosperous country that could turn a proud face to the modern world. For he made it into a nation, defined by language and territory rather than by party or faith. Universal adult suffrage for both sexes was introduced into Turkey in 1933. And the country continues to be governed by a legal system that derives its authority from human legislators rather than divine revelation.
Anti-government protester with Turkish flag with portrait of AtaturkA portrait of Ataturk - founder of modern Turkey - decorates this protester's flag
At the same time its population is almost entirely Muslim, and experiences the inevitable nostalgia for the pure and beautiful way of life invoked in the Koran. There is therefore tension between the secular state and the religious feelings of the people.
Ataturk was aware of this tension, and appointed the army as the guardian of the Secular Constitution. He imposed a system of education for army officers that would make them instinctive opponents of the obscurantism of the clerics. The army was to be the advocate of progress and modernity, which would place patriotism above piety in the hearts of the people.
In obedience to its appointed role, the Turkish army has several times stepped in to uphold Ataturk's vision. It took over in 1980, when the Soviet Union was actively trying to subvert Turkish democracy and nationalists and leftists were fighting it out in the streets. The army has also made its presence felt in recent years, when the government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has taken a step back towards the old Islamic values.
Erdogan gestures as he gives a speech under a Turkish flag and portraits of himself and AtaturkErdogan, with portraits of himself and Ataturk as backdrop
Erdogan's Justice and Development Party is nominally secular. But he is a man of the people and a sincere Muslim, who believes that the Koran contains the divinely inspired and uniquely valid guide to human life. He is not happy with a constitution that puts patriotism above piety, and which makes the army, rather than the mosque, into the guardian of social order. He has put a large number of leading army officers on trial on charges of subversion, some of them now jailed for life.
The trials have been denounced as a travesty of justice; but those who say this are likely to be accused of subversion themselves. Journalists opposed to Erdogan's policies have a remarkable tendency to end up in jail. Newspapers that criticise the prime minister find themselves suddenly confronted with crippling tax demands or massive fines. And popular protests are put down with whatever force may be required. In Turkey, opposition is now becoming dangerous.
The Turkish case vividly illustrates the point that democracy, freedom and human rights are not one thing but three. Erdogan has a large following. He has three times won an election with a substantial majority. But the elementary freedoms that we take for granted have been rather jeopardised than enhanced by this.
The Egyptian example is even more pertinent. The Muslim Brotherhood has always sought to be a mass movement, seeking to establish itself by popular support. But its most influential leader, Sayyid Qutb, denounced the whole idea of the secular state as a kind of blasphemy, an attempt to usurp the will of God by passing laws that have a merely human authority. Qutb was executed by President Nasser, who came to power in a military coup.
And ever since then the Muslim Brotherhood and the Army have played against each other. The Brotherhood aims for a populist government and won an election that it took to authorise the remaking of Egypt as an Islamic Republic. The posters waved by Morsi's supporters did not advocate democracy or human rights. They said: "All of us are with the Sharia." The army replied by saying no, only some of us are.
Tank outside Egypt's constitutional court
So why cannot a modern state govern itself by Islamic law? This is a controversial issue about which there are many learned views.
Here, for what it is worth, is mine. The original schools of Islamic jurisprudence, which arose in the wake of the Prophet's reign in Medina, permitted jurists to adapt the law to the changing needs of society, by a process of reflection known as ijtihad, or effort. But this seems to have been brought to an end during the 8th Century, when it was maintained by the then dominant theological school that all important matters had been settled and that the "gate of ijtihad is closed".
Trying to introduce Sharia today therefore runs the risk of imposing on people a system of law designed for the government of a long since vanished community and unable to adapt to the changing circumstances of human life. To put the point in a nutshell - secular law adapts, religious law merely endures.
Moreover, precisely because Sharia has not adapted, nobody really knows what it says. Does it tell us to stone adulterers to death? Some say yes, some say no. Does it tell us that investing money at interest is in every case forbidden? Some say yes, some say no.
When God makes the laws, the laws become as mysterious as God is. When we make the laws, and make them for our purposes, we can be certain what they mean. The only question then is "who are we?" What way of defining ourselves reconciles democratic elections with real opposition and individual rights? That, to my mind, is the most important question facing the West today. It is important because, as I shall argue next week, we too are giving the wrong answer.
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