By Ismaila Adebayo And Ibraheem Hamza Muhammad
The tumultuous crowd that flooded the Eagle Square in Abuja on Wednesday, October 15, 2014, was unprecedented. Thousands of admirers of former Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari slept in the open space from Tuesday night till the next day, to witness Buhari's declaration for the 2015 presidential race under the banner of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Apart from the crowd, it was significant that activities at the Federal Secretariat and all government offices located at the Three Arms Zone were paralysed because of the overwhelming crowd.
"The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) would spend billions of naira before it can assemble such a crowd at its function at the Eagle Square," a former Governor of Kwara State, Senator Bukola Saraki, told Sunday Trust, while commenting on the popularity of General Buhari. "Those who attended that rally came from all over the country, and they were not paid any kobo to be there."
That event is a watershed in the country's march to the 2015 presidential election, because Buhari's declaration put paid to earlier speculations that the former Head of State would remain in the background and campaign for the emergence of a younger politician as a presidential candidate of the APC in the forthcoming elections. This position became rife, considering the fact that before the 2011 presidential election in which he contested on the ticket of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Buhari had said that would be his last shot at the Presidency, because age was no longer on his side.
According to him, in an interview with Sunday Trust, in February 2011, "I'm not getting younger. If I succeed and do one term, I will be 73 years old." However, as events heralding 2015 presidency unfolded, and following the merger of several political parties to form the APC, Buhari's body language changed, indicating that he would change his mind to contest the next presidential election.
An indication of his popularity even at that age was evident on the array of dignitaries that graced the occasion. They include Governors Babatunde Fashola (Lagos), Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), Adams Oshiomhole (Edo) and Umaru Al-Makura (Nasarawa). There were also representatives of the governors of Osun, Kwara and Sokoto. Others included Senators Ahmad Sani Bakura, Bukar Abba Ibrahim, Bello Gada, Remi Tinubu, George Akume and Abdullahi Adamu, former Bayelsa governor Timipreye Sylva, former Deputy Governor of Bauchi, Alhaji Garba Umar Gadi, a former PDP National Chairman Audu Ogbeh, former House of Representatives Speaker Aminu Masari. There were many other party leaders from across the country at the event.
WHY WOULD BUHARI CONTEST IN SPITE OF HIS AGE AND PROMISE NOT TO?
One of the questions raised about his intention to run for the presidency is, why he should do so at his age. One of his admirers, Professor Tam David-West, a former Petroleum Minister and now lecturer at the University of Ibadan, responded to this in an article entitled, "Buhari: The Politics of Age."
According to Professor David-West, who has raised his voice against the corruption in the Jonathan administration, there is nothing wrong with Buhari's ambition, because there are examples of world leaders who performed excellently in spite of their age. Professor David-West argued thus: "General Buhari was born on December 17, 1942.
He is 72 years in 2014. He will be 73 in 2015. Still young to be President of Nigeria! This nonsense about age is also faulted on the grounds that good leadership is not necessarily defined by age. It is also not defined by high learning - PhD and all that. Good leadership is innate divine endowment. But it can also be nurtured at times. From my research (ably assisted by my friend, Okoi Obono-Obla) I list some 15 examples of leaders, both in Africa and abroad who are older - some much older-than General Buhari.
"Let me start with our neighbour, Liberia, with its great lady president:President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, President 2006 at age 70. She was 75 in 2011. She will remain president till 2016. She will be 80 years then. President Jacob Zuma, South Africa is 72 years old. He will be president till 2019 at 77 years. Nelson Mandela, born July 18, 1918. President of South Africa in 1994 at 76 years. Still president in 1998 (single term) when he voluntarily stepped down for Mbeki. He was 80 years. If he had served his two terms he would have been 84 years. President Peter Mutharika, Malawi 74 when he was sworn in on 31 May, 2014.
He will be president till 2019 at 79 years. President Alpha Conde Guinea. President at 76 years. President in December 2011 at 72 years. President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, Angola 72 years. He will be president till 2020 at 78 years. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, Algeria 77 years. President till 2020 at 83 years old. President Alasanne Quattara, Ivory Coast 72 years in 2012. President till 2016 at 76 years.
Yoweri Museveni, Uganda, president since 1985 at 70 years won another seven years in 2013 at 77 years, will be president till 2020 at 84. President Jose Mujica of Uruguay 75 at election; re-elected and is now 79 years. President Teodoro ObiangNguema Mbasogo, Equatorial Guinea; born January 6, 1942 is 72 years and still going on. President Michael Sata, Zambia 77 years - president September 23, 2011 at 74; will be president till 2016. He will be 79. President Paul Biya of Cameroon (President Jonathan has obvious fancy for him) is 81 years. He will be in office till 2017 at 84.
President Milos Zeman of Czech Republic is 70 will be in office till 2018 at 74. President Ronald Reagan; born February 06, 1911. President USA at 70. Two terms of 4 years. He left office in 1989 he was 78."
Beyond the issue of age and the promise he made in 2011, Buhari's admirers continue to make reference to his anti-corruption posture and his integrity as two qualities needed to clean-up the mess in the Nigerian polity and economy.
A former governor of Kebbi State, Alhaji Argungu, who is a member of the APC talked about Buhari's qualities, thus: "I know General Buhari very well. We worked very closely at party levels since he came into the political arena in 2003 in the All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP). Even in 2007 when he contested we were very close because I participated very actively in his campaign for the presidency.
"I know him very well and I am sure he can deliver based on his antecedents. Don't forget he was a former Minister of Petroleum and a governor. When he was Head of State we saw how he tackled corruption and how, within a short time, he changed so many things in this country to the admiration of the entire world. Throughout the period of his administration he did not squander a Kobo. During Abacha's regime, when he was made the Petroleum Trust Fund's (PTF) Chairman, Nigerians, particularly the local people, felt the positive impact of PTF because of the leadership qualities of Buhari.
"He could have squandered the money meant for PTF's projects because at that time nobody was auditing him on how he was spending the money because he was trusted. I believe when he becomes president in 2015 he will change the country for the better because he is dedicated, determined, selfless and upright in his dealings."
BUHARI AND APC TICKET:
The National Chairman of the APC, Chief John Oyegun, has said several times that the party's presidential ticket was open to all aspirants, regardless of zone. Already, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of Kano State, and Mr Sam Nda-Isaiah, the founder of Leadership Newspapers Group, have made their intentions to seek the party's ticket known.
In the APC, there is a section that believes that the party should field a candidate who is younger than General Buhari, and acceptable across the country, considering the apparent religious and geopolitical divide in the country.
In spite of this voice, it seems likely that General Buhari may still be favoured, considering Senator Bukola's line of argument in an interview with Sunday Trust. Complaining that the period for campaign is too short for a relatively new face to sell his promises to Nigerians across the country, Senator Saraki said, perhaps, the best is to field a candidate who has established popularity in the country.
The former governor said, "A scenario, where, a candidate, between when he starts his campaign and when he is voted for is not more than three or four months will not enable him to explain his plans in tacking the issues that are key. For instance, what is your plan for job creation, security, education, etc? If there is enough time, you can actually challenge and know the capacity of the presidential candidate."
Another member of the party who did not want his name in print told Sunday Trust, "inasmuch as it is clear that Buhari will easily win a lot of votes in the North, members of the party must be reminded that the North alone cannot give Buhari victory. Even in the North, you have the North-Central, where the PDP is very strong in, at least, four states of Kogi, Plateau, Benue and even Niger.
You need a candidate that will win massive votes in these states. Also, in the South-West, there is the religious challenge at the moment. In the South-East and South-South, there is a lot of work to be done. Those who sing Buhari's winning ability to high heavens, considering his followers in the North-West and North-East, may be myopic. Atiku has political structures across the country, from North to South, because he was a chieftain of the PDP. He has that advantage over other contenders.
Also, the fact that Sam Nda-Isaiah has moved from one part of the country to another in the last few months, selling his candidature shows that if he is given the right support by the party's leaders he could make it. Governor Kwankwaso, too, has his supporters across the country, using his contacts with former governors of the PDP. I think the party needs to be open-minded about who gets the ticket. Giving out the party's ticket is one thing, winning the presidential election is actually a different ball game."
IF GIVEN THE TICKET, CAN BUHARI DEFEAT PDP'S JONATHAN?
An opinion poll published by an online medium, Sahara Reporters, at the weekend, claimed that General Buhari would defeat President Goodluck Jonathan, if the 2015 election had been conducted shortly after Buhari's declaration last Wednesday. The unscientific poll in which some 14000 participated from Nigeria, Canada, South Africa, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, UAE, Kuwait, Lithuania, Mauritius, India, Italy, Sudan, Australia, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Thailand, gave Buhari the lead by a whopping margin of 78% to 22%.
This would not be the first of such polls on the 2015 presidential election. An earlier survey carried out by Eurasia, the global political risk and consulting firm, "upgraded its short-term trajectory on Nigeria from negative to neutral, as it projects that President Goodluck Jonathan has a 75-percent chance of re-election in February 2015."
Considering the claim by the Transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria (TAN) that it has collected some 12.2 million signatures from across the country asking Jonathan to declare his interest in 2015 presidential race, and the array of posters promoting Jonathan's achievements, one would say the president would win next year's election.
As it is, there is no reliable indices that would clearly show who will win next year's election, between Buhari and Jonathan. For instance, Buhari has followers across the North, to the point that without the support of governors, he could win the majority of votes in the region.
But Jonathan has massive followers in the South-South and South-East, where, going by what happened in 2011, voters turnout (mostly 100 per cent, and voting for the PDP) can beat the imagination of political scientists. The South-West and North-Central would be the battleground, therefore. This goes a long way to demonstrate how the country has been polarised along religious and geopolitical lines.
Last night, a prominent cleric in Kaduna, Sheikh Ahmad Abubakar Gumi, a leader of the Izala sect issued a statement asking both Buhari and Jonathan not to run because their candidacy could set the country ablaze.
Sheikh Gumi said, "Let us be frank with ourselves, GOODLUCK VS BUHARI is going to be a war of two extreme poles. This polarized situation is what should be avoided at all cost. Whether Goodluck likes to hear it or not, he is seen by most Muslim masses in Nigeria as the most pro-Christian president. The CAN and the wealthy jet trotting pastors the nation is shocked with have never had it better.
"This has tainted PDP as a CAN party. For that most Christians will still vote for Jonathan despite the deplorable state of the nation and gross mis-governance from share recklessness and incapacity. He is still better to them than Buhari.
"On the other hand, Buhari's popularity surged to messianic peak among the ordinary northern Muslims not because of his incorruptible ascetic-like qualities but the day he debunked the Atiku's 'back to status quo' declaration during the heated Sharia and Anti-Sharia debacle of Zamfara's Sharia reintroduction. This same reason, Christians are still not comfortable with him.
My fear here is that what Buhari did was the right thing and he should never regret it even if it cost him his presidency. That is his most pleasurable achievement to Allah for standing for his own faith being tarnished and politicized. The moment he stands for the presidency he has two options, lose the Christian votes or dilute his Islamic credentials by going extra miles to prove he is not an Islamist which they all know he is not.
Buhari's candidature will unite the Christians against him and Goodluck's candidature will unite the Muslims against him. This is the time bomb that will only probably benefit Goodluck. He either continues to force his way or disintegrate the country. A win-win situation for him and his Niger Delta kinsmen."
Now, Buhari's declaration seems to have changed the tempo for the 2015 presidential poll.
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